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Held by 584 of 6,047 reporting institutions (97th percentile) — extremely crowded.
Data as of Q2 2026
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Total shares institutions bought (green) vs sold (red) each quarter across all holders.
Inferred from quarter-over-quarter change in each fund's 13F position (new stakes count as buys, exits as sells). Not tick-level trades.
Solve the discounted cash flow backwards, then stress-test the assumptions.
Average free cash flow across the last 2 positive fiscal years (FY2023, FY2024). Smooths the cycle. Stock compensation is NOT charged — it is added back inside operating cash flow.
To be worth $12.62 today, the market must believe free cash flow compounds 13.0%/yr for a decade (off $1.25B on the 3-yr avg basis).
On the basis ($1.16B) the requirement is 14.1%/yr. Shares issued to employees are added back in operating cash flow, so this basis treats them as free.
Default is 10.3% — this company's computed cost of capital (computed WACC), the same rate the Analysis tab discounts at.
2-stage DCF · 0.66B shares (market data) · net debt $27.33B
mean -143.6% · volatility σ 110% · implied rate exceeded in 0/4 yrs
Central path = implied 13.0%/yr growth; shaded band = ±1σ (110%) of this company's historical FCF volatility, widening with time. The wider the band, the less certain the growth.
Reverse DCF: rather than guessing a fair value, we solve for the growth the current price implies, then you stress-test the assumptions. Enterprise value of the FCF stream, less net debt, ÷ shares. Educational — not a recommendation.
Total return (dividends reinvested) vs the market, from quarter-end prices.
Above 0 = ahead of the S&P 500 since the window start; below 0 = behind. Rising means it's pulling ahead.
How far the stock fell below its prior peak. Deeper, longer drawdowns = a rougher ride to the same return.
Quarter-end, dividend-adjusted (total return). Beta & volatility from quarterly returns (annualized). Benchmark is the S&P 500 (SPY total return). Annual returns compound the quarters ending in each calendar year; the first and last years in a window may be partial. Past performance doesn't predict future results.
Ranked against 8 sector peers with collected financials. Valuation from latest close × latest fiscal-year fundamentals; 13F conviction as of 2026-06-30.
Percentile is “goodness” within the peer set (100 = best). For valuation and leverage that means cheaper / less-levered ranks higher.
| Company | Mkt cap ▼ | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/S | Rev gr | Gross | Net | ROE | ROIC | Net D/EBITDA | 13F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | $54.0B | 10.7× | 7.6× | 0.8× | 2.8% | — | 7.9% | 24.0% | 14.7% | 1.1× | 1,474 |
| UAL | $34.9B | 10.5× | 6.6× | 0.6× | 3.5% | — | 5.7% | 21.9% | 9.2% | 2.0× | 1,039 |
| LUV | $20.4B | 52.7× | — | 0.7× | 2.1% | — | 1.6% | 5.5% | 3.3% | — | 901 |
| AAL | $8.4B | 74.2× | 9.7× | 0.1× | 0.8% | — | 0.2% | -3.0% | 0.5% | 7.5× | 584 |
| ALK | $4.2B | 45.9× | 8.1× | 0.3× | 21.3% | — | 0.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 4.3× | 482 |
| SKYW | $3.7B | 9.3× | 6.1× | 0.9× | 15.0% | — | 10.6% | 15.6% | 8.3% | 2.3× | 339 |
| JBLU | $1.4B | — | 27.4× | 0.2× | -2.3% | — | -6.6% | -28.4% | -5.3% | — | 391 |
| RJET | $805M | 9.2× | 6.4× | 0.5× | 13.7% | — | 4.5% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 3.7× | 61 |
| HRBR | $130M | — | 62.4× | 0.6× | 1.6% | — | -8.5% | -10.8% | -10.8% | -8.1× | 1 |
Peers = companies sharing AAL's sector (Air Transportation, Scheduled) with collected SEC financials. Multiples use the most recent end-of-day close and latest fiscal-year fundamentals (trailing, not forward). Missing cells mean the peer never reported that line item, has no collected price, or has a non-positive denominator. Not investment advice.
Top 40 institutional holders — bubble size is position value, color is the move since last quarter. Hover any holder for detail.
Drag any bubble to rearrange · size = dollar value of the position
What the company returns to shareholders — and whether it's covered by cash.
No dividend to cover. Last year: $0 dividends + $0 buybacks = $0 returned on -$680.0M FCF.
Yields use the latest fiscal-year dividends/buybacks over current market cap. Dividends and buybacks from the SEC cash-flow statement; payout coverage vs net income and free cash flow. Educational — not a recommendation.
How management deployed cash over 10 years — and what it earned on reinvestment.
A cash-return story — far more went to shareholders than back into the business (mature, low-reinvestment).
Insufficient data. Current ROIC on all capital: 0%. Rough measure (includes maintenance capex).
Cash uses aggregated from the SEC cash-flow statement over 10 fiscal years. "Return on reinvestment" is a rough proxy — operating-income change ÷ cumulative CapEx + M&A — and includes maintenance capex. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-10-12
Where each multiple sits in its own 14-yr range · 57th pct blended
Dot = today · shaded = middle 50% · line = median. Lower percentile = cheaper vs its own 14-yr history.
Is the profit real, and how strong is the balance sheet?
FY2025 · every deduction from revenue to net income
DuPont — the three levers
ROE -3% against ROIC 0% — -3% of the return on equity comes from leverage and buybacks rather than from the operating business.
What the company owes vs. what it holds
This shows debt/cash structure and net leverage. The year-by-year maturity schedule is on the Debt & Leverage tab.
Latest year: profit growth vs revenue growth
Profit and sales moved in opposite directions this year.
Each line as % of revenue — the trend in color
| % of revenue | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG&A | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.7 |
| Operating Income | 6.0 | 6.7 | -60.1 | -3.5 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.7 |
| Income Tax | 1.1 | 1.2 | -14.8 | -1.9 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| Net Income | 3.2 | 3.7 | -51.2 | -6.7 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.2 |
Green = margin-favorable vs the row's own range · red = unfavorable.
The metrics that matter, over time
A 30-second read on AAL: price, valuation and headline fundamentals from SEC filings. The four questions at the top of the page are where the judgements live.
How much the company owes, how it's trended, and how comfortably it's serviced.
Cash of $954.0M is below the $3.64B due within a year — relies on refinancing or operating cash flow. Scheduled principal only (excludes interest & revolver draws). As of 2025-12-31 (10-K).
Green ≤ 1.5× · amber ≤ 3× · red > 3× (leverage relative to cash earnings).
Thin coverage — earnings barely cover interest. Effective rate ~6.1% on $28.28B of debt.
Cash of $954.0M is below short-term debt of $3.64B — relies on refinancing/operations.
Mostly long-term debt (balance-sheet current vs non-current split). See the maturity ladder above for the year-by-year repayment schedule.
Debt, cash, interest and equity from the SEC balance sheet & income statement. Effective rate = interest ÷ average debt. Maturity ladder from the SEC long-term-debt repayment schedule. Educational — not a recommendation.
Earns -6.98pts against its cost of capital — capital is being consumed, not created.
| Period | ROIC | Cost of capital | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | 6.4% | 10.3% (today's — no rate published for this year) | -3.8pts |
| FY2020 | -21.4% | 10.3% (today's — no rate published for this year) | -31.6pts |
| FY2021 | -1.9% | 8.0% | -9.9pts |
| FY2022 | 3.0% | 9.1% | -6.1pts |
| FY2023 | 6.0% | 9.3% | -3.3pts |
| FY2024 | 5.5% | 9.6% | -4.2pts |
| FY2025 | 3.2% | 9.2% | -6.1pts |
| Now | 0.5% | 10.3% | -9.8pts |
| Fiscal year | Gross margin | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2016 | not reported | 12.6% | 6.4% |
| FY2017 | not reported | 9.9% | 3.0% |
| FY2018 | not reported | 6.0% | 3.2% |
| FY2019 | not reported | 6.7% | 3.7% |
| FY2020 | not reported | -60.1% | -51.2% |
| FY2021 | not reported | -3.5% | -6.7% |
| FY2022 | not reported | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| FY2023 | not reported | 5.7% | 1.6% |
| FY2024 | not reported | 4.8% | 1.6% |
| FY2025 | not reported | 2.7% | 0.2% |
$4.1B of goodwill — 13% of invested capital. The gap is what was paid above the fair value of what was bought; it is real capital shareholders provided, so neither bar is the whole answer.
Margins have compressed 2 years running even as the spread stayed positive.
Cash conversion of -1.27x sits below the level that would make the earnings clearly cash-backed.
Reported free cash flow is -$680M; after share-based compensation it is -$737M. The difference is a real cost that the cash flow statement adds back.
Stressed coverage falls to 0.6x — below the level at which interest is reliably covered.
| EBITDA decline | Interest coverage |
|---|---|
| 0% | 0.85x |
| 5% | 0.81x |
| 10% | 0.77x |
| 15% | 0.73x |
| 20% | 0.68x |
| 25% | 0.64x |
| 30% | 0.60x |
| 35% | 0.56x |
| 40% | 0.51x |
| 45% | 0.47x |
| 50% | 0.43x |
| 55% | 0.38x |
| 60% | 0.34x |
Ladder as of 2025-12-31 (10-K); cash from the 2025-12-31 balance sheet; FCF from FY2025. Free cash flow is negative, so projected resources fall rather than accumulate.
Balance sheet at 2025-12-31. Undrawn revolving credit is not shown: the tag is collected but not yet mapped through to the API.
Free cash flow is negative, so debt service depends on the cash balance rather than on the business.
At $12.62, free cash flow must compound 15.7%/yr for 10 years. It has no positive compounding record to compare against.
| Fiscal year | FCF growth | Price requires |
|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | −175.2% | 15.7% |
| FY2024 | 7.7% | 15.7% |
| FY2025 | −152.3% | 15.7% |
The implied rate of 15.7% has not been achieved in any of the last 3 years.
| Step | Amount | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | $111M | $111M |
| Share-based comp | $57M | $168M |
| Other non-cash & working capital | $2.93B | $3.10B |
| Operating cash flow | $3.10B | $3.10B |
| Capex | −$3.78B | −$680M |
| Free cash flow | −$680M | −$680M |
| FCF after SBC | −$737M | −$737M |
| Fiscal year | Revenue growth | Receivables growth | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | -62.1% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2021 | 72.4% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2022 | 63.9% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2023 | 7.8% | -5.2% | -13.0 points |
| FY2024 | 2.7% | -1.0% | -3.7 points |
| FY2025 | 0.8% | 3.4% | 2.7 points |
| Fiscal year | DSO | DIO | DPO | Cash conversion cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | not reported | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2020 | not reported | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2021 | not reported | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2022 | 15.9 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2023 | 14 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2024 | 13.5 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2025 | 13.9 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| Fiscal year | Accruals / assets |
|---|---|
| FY2019 | -3.5 percent |
| FY2020 | -3.8 percent |
| FY2021 | -4.1 percent |
| FY2022 | -3.2 percent |
| FY2023 | -4.7 percent |
| FY2024 | -5.1 percent |
| FY2025 | -4.8 percent |
SBC is added back inside operating cash flow, so reported free cash flow treats shares issued to employees as free. Percent of revenue says how expensive the payroll is; percent of operating cash flow says how much of the cash exists only because the charge was added back. The buyback offset is buybacks over SBC — below 1.0 the repurchase does not cover the shares issued.
Figures are the latest fiscal year (FY2025) from the company's own filings, not a trailing-twelve-month window — Q2 reads fiscal years throughout so the cash-conversion ratios and these share one basis. A blank is a line the filer did not report; it is never read as zero.
EOD close · as of 2026-10-12
How a revenue dollar becomes profit — FY2025
Dividends and buybacks are cash paid out, shown here against the same year's profit for scale — not funded from it.
Each value shows its share of revenue below it (common-size).
| Line Item | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | FY2020 | FY2019 | FY2018 | FY2017 | FY2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $54.63B 100.0% | $54.21B 100.0% | $52.79B 100.0% | $48.97B 100.0% | $29.88B 100.0% | $17.34B 100.0% | $45.77B 100.0% | $44.54B 100.0% | $42.62B 100.0% | $40.14B 100.0% |
| Selling, General & Admin | $2.00B 3.7% | $1.81B 3.3% | $1.80B 3.4% | $1.81B 3.7% | $1.10B 3.7% | $666.0M 3.8% | $2.00B 4.4% | $1.52B 3.4% | $1.48B 3.5% | $1.32B 3.3% |
| Total Operating Expenses | $53.17B 97.3% | $51.60B 95.2% | $49.75B 94.3% | $47.36B 96.7% | $30.94B 103.5% | $27.76B 160.1% | $42.70B 93.3% | $41.88B 94.0% | $38.39B 90.1% | $35.08B 87.4% |
| Operating Income | $1.47B 2.7% | $2.61B 4.8% | $3.03B 5.7% | $1.61B 3.3% | -$1.06B -3.5% | -$10.42B -60.1% | $3.06B 6.7% | $2.66B 6.0% | $4.23B 9.9% | $5.06B 12.6% |
| Interest Expense | $1.72B 3.1% | $1.93B 3.6% | $2.15B 4.1% | $1.96B 4.0% | $1.80B 6.0% | $1.23B 7.1% | $1.09B 2.4% | $1.06B 2.4% | $1.05B 2.5% | $991.0M 2.5% |
| Interest & Investment Income | $357.0M 0.7% | $468.0M 0.9% | $591.0M 1.1% | $216.0M 0.4% | $18.0M 0.1% | $41.0M 0.2% | $127.0M 0.3% | $118.0M 0.3% | $94.0M 0.2% | $63.0M 0.2% |
| Other Income (Expense), net | -$1.28B -2.3% | -$1.46B -2.7% | -$1.91B -3.6% | -$1.42B -2.9% | -$1.49B -5.0% | -$1.03B -6.0% | -$809.0M -1.8% | -$772.0M -1.7% | -$836.0M -2.0% | -$908.0M -2.3% |
| Pretax Income | $190.0M 0.3% | $1.15B 2.1% | $1.12B 2.1% | $186.0M 0.4% | -$2.55B -8.5% | -$11.45B -66.1% | $2.26B 4.9% | $1.88B 4.2% | $3.40B 8.0% | $4.15B 10.3% |
| Income Tax Expense | $79.0M 0.1% | $308.0M 0.6% | $299.0M 0.6% | $59.0M 0.1% | -$555.0M -1.9% | -$2.57B -14.8% | $570.0M 1.2% | $472.0M 1.1% | $2.11B 5.0% | $1.57B 3.9% |
| Net Income | $111.0M 0.2% | $846.0M 1.6% | $822.0M 1.6% | $127.0M 0.3% | -$1.99B -6.7% | -$8.88B -51.2% | $1.69B 3.7% | $1.41B 3.2% | $1.28B 3.0% | $2.58B 6.4% |
| Per Share | ||||||||||
| EPS (Basic) | $0.17 | $1.29 | $1.26 | $0.20 | -$3.09 | -$18.36 | $3.80 | $3.04 | $2.62 | $4.68 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.17 | $1.24 | $1.21 | $0.19 | -$3.09 | -$18.36 | $3.79 | $3.03 | $2.61 | $4.65 |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Basic) | 660.0M | 657.0M | 653.6M | 650.3M | 644.0M | 483.9M | 443.4M | 464.2M | 489.2M | 552.3M |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Diluted) | 661.1M | 721.3M | 719.7M | 655.1M | 644.0M | 483.9M | 444.3M | 465.7M | 491.7M | 556.1M |
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (annual, fiscal year). Quarterly flow items are derived from cumulative filings; balance-sheet figures are as-of each period end. Ratios and margins are computed, not reported.