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Held by 278 of 6,047 reporting institutions (93th percentile) — extremely crowded.
Data as of Q2 2026
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Total shares institutions bought (green) vs sold (red) each quarter across all holders.
Inferred from quarter-over-quarter change in each fund's 13F position (new stakes count as buys, exits as sells). Not tick-level trades.
Total return (dividends reinvested) vs the market, from quarter-end prices.
Above 0 = ahead of the S&P 500 since the window start; below 0 = behind. Rising means it's pulling ahead.
How far the stock fell below its prior peak. Deeper, longer drawdowns = a rougher ride to the same return.
Quarter-end, dividend-adjusted (total return). Beta & volatility from quarterly returns (annualized). Benchmark is the S&P 500 (SPY total return). Annual returns compound the quarters ending in each calendar year; the first and last years in a window may be partial. Past performance doesn't predict future results.
Solve the discounted cash flow backwards, then stress-test the assumptions.
This company doesn't have positive free cash flow on any basis, so a reverse DCF can't be run.
What the company returns to shareholders — and whether it's covered by cash.
No dividend to cover. Last year: $0 dividends + $200K buybacks = $200K returned on -$30.9M FCF.
Yields use the latest fiscal-year dividends/buybacks over current market cap. Dividends and buybacks from the SEC cash-flow statement; payout coverage vs net income and free cash flow. Educational — not a recommendation.
How management deployed cash over 5 years — and what it earned on reinvestment.
A reinvestment story — most cash went back into growth rather than to shareholders.
Operating income fell despite reinvestment — a warning on capital productivity. Current ROIC on all capital: -3%. Rough measure (includes maintenance capex).
Cash uses aggregated from the SEC cash-flow statement over 5 fiscal years. "Return on reinvestment" is a rough proxy — operating-income change ÷ cumulative CapEx + M&A — and includes maintenance capex. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-10-16
Where each multiple sits in its own 3-yr range · 44th pct blended
Dot = today · shaded = middle 50% · line = median. Lower percentile = cheaper vs its own 3-yr history.
Is the profit real, and how strong is the balance sheet?
FY2025 · every deduction from revenue to net income
DuPont — the three levers
ROE -4% against ROIC -3% — -1% of the return on equity comes from leverage and buybacks rather than from the operating business.
What the company owes vs. what it holds
This shows debt/cash structure and net leverage. The year-by-year maturity schedule is on the Debt & Leverage tab.
Latest year: profit growth vs revenue growth
Profit and sales moved in opposite directions this year.
Each line as % of revenue — the trend in color
| % of revenue | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Profit | 37.2 | 53.1 | 51.1 | 22.0 | 13.8 |
| SG&A | 9.9 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 12.7 |
| Operating Income | 27.3 | 48.1 | 43.2 | 10.8 | -1.0 |
| Income Tax | 0.5 | 0.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | -1.6 |
| Net Income | 2.5 | 45.0 | 17.2 | 5.7 | -4.6 |
Green = margin-favorable vs the row's own range · red = unfavorable.
The metrics that matter, over time
A 30-second read on AESI: price, valuation and headline fundamentals from SEC filings. The four questions at the top of the page are where the judgements live.
How much the company owes, how it's trended, and how comfortably it's serviced.
$41.0M of principal comes due within a year. Scheduled principal only (excludes interest & revolver draws). As of 2025-12-31 (10-K).
Green ≤ 1.5× · amber ≤ 3× · red > 3× (leverage relative to cash earnings).
Interest is easily covered by operating profit. Effective rate ~4.4% on $172.8M of debt. Interest last disclosed in FY2023 (no longer broken out).
Cash vs short-term debt unavailable.
Mostly long-term debt (balance-sheet current vs non-current split). See the maturity ladder above for the year-by-year repayment schedule.
Debt, cash, interest and equity from the SEC balance sheet & income statement. Effective rate = interest ÷ average debt. Maturity ladder from the SEC long-term-debt repayment schedule. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-10-16
How a revenue dollar becomes profit — FY2025
Dividends and buybacks are cash paid out, shown here against the same year's profit for scale — not funded from it.
Each value shows its share of revenue below it (common-size).
| Line Item | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.10B 100.0% | $1.06B 100.0% | $614.0M 100.0% | $482.7M 100.0% | $172.4M 100.0% |
| Gross Profit | $150.7M 13.8% | $232.0M 22.0% | $313.8M 51.1% | $256.3M 53.1% | $64.1M 37.2% |
| Selling, General & Admin | $138.8M 12.7% | $106.2M 10.1% | $48.6M 7.9% | $24.3M 5.0% | $17.1M 9.9% |
| Operating Income | -$10.9M -1.0% | $113.9M 10.8% | $265.1M 43.2% | $232.0M 48.1% | $47.0M 27.3% |
| Interest Expense | — | — | $7.7M 1.3% | $15.8M 3.3% | $42.2M 24.5% |
| Other Income (Expense), net | $727K 0.1% | $551K 0.1% | $430K 0.1% | $2.6M 0.5% | $291K 0.2% |
| Pretax Income | -$68.2M -6.2% | $75.8M 7.2% | $257.9M 42.0% | $218.9M 45.3% | $5.1M 3.0% |
| Income Tax Expense | -$17.9M -1.6% | $15.8M 1.5% | $31.4M 5.1% | $1.9M 0.4% | $831K 0.5% |
| Net Income | -$50.3M -4.6% | $59.9M 5.7% | $105.4M 17.2% | $217.0M 45.0% | $4.3M 2.5% |
| Per Share | |||||
| EPS (Basic) | -$0.41 | $0.55 | $1.50 | — | — |
| EPS (Diluted) | -$0.41 | $0.55 | $1.48 | — | — |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Basic) | 122.4M | 108.2M | 70.5M | — | — |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Diluted) | 122.4M | 109.2M | 71.0M | — | — |
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (annual, fiscal year). Quarterly flow items are derived from cumulative filings; balance-sheet figures are as-of each period end. Ratios and margins are computed, not reported.
Top 40 institutional holders — bubble size is position value, color is the move since last quarter. Hover any holder for detail.
Drag any bubble to rearrange · size = dollar value of the position
Ranked against 18 sector peers with collected financials. Valuation from latest close × latest fiscal-year fundamentals; 13F conviction as of 2026-06-30.
Percentile is “goodness” within the peer set (100 = best). For valuation and leverage that means cheaper / less-levered ranks higher.
| Company | Mkt cap ▼ | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/S | Rev gr | Gross | Net | ROE | ROIC | Net D/EBITDA | 13F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNX | $5.3B | 9.0× | 5.3× | 2.4× | 76.8% | — | 28.3% | 14.6% | 9.4% | 1.6× | 374 |
| CRC | $4.8B | 13.1× | 5.4× | 1.3× | 14.7% | — | 9.9% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 1.0× | 352 |
| PARR | $4.2B | 11.7× | 7.0× | 0.6× | -6.4% | — | 4.9% | 24.4% | 16.0% | 0.9× | 360 |
| CRK | $4.1B | 9.8× | 5.4× | 1.9× | 77.0% | — | 17.8% | 14.9% | 7.3% | 2.2× | 313 |
| TALO | $3.0B | — | 7.7× | 1.7× | -9.8% | — | -27.8% | -22.8% | -14.6% | 1.7× | 285 |
| GPOR | $2.9B | 7.7× | 4.1× | 2.1× | 48.5% | 74.8% | 30.1% | 23.3% | 16.3% | 0.9× | 279 |
| NOG | $2.9B | 69.6× | — | 1.2× | 11.2% | 80.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | — | 333 |
| BKV | $2.5B | 11.2× | 6.8× | 2.2× | 9.9% | — | 15.7% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 1.8× | 160 |
| AESI | $1.2B | — | 12.1× | 1.1× | 3.7% | 13.8% | -4.6% | -4.2% | -2.8% | 3.9× | 278 |
| REPX | $1.1B | 6.4× | 5.7× | 2.7× | -4.4% | — | 41.0% | 25.4% | 18.2% | 1.0× | 192 |
| DEC | $1.0B | 3.2× | 4.2× | 0.6× | 142% | — | 18.6% | 34.7% | 8.7% | 3.1× | 184 |
| TTI | $788M | 266.0× | 9.6× | 1.3× | 5.3% | 24.7% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1× | 231 |
| VTS | $768M | 28.5× | — | 2.8× | 13.2% | — | 9.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | — | 232 |
| GRNT | $719M | 30.3× | — | 1.6× | 18.5% | — | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% | — | 166 |
| SD | $529M | 7.5× | 4.0× | 3.4× | 24.8% | — | 44.9% | 13.7% | 13.7% | -1.1× | 165 |
| GTE | $386M | — | — | 0.7× | -4.0% | 55.5% | -32.4% | -84.4% | -20.9% | — | 70 |
| REI | $357M | — | 5.7× | 1.2× | -16.1% | — | -11.3% | -4.1% | -4.1% | -0.0× | 146 |
| PNRG | $327M | 19.1× | — | 1.7× | -20.5% | 96.7% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 12.2% | — | 93 |
| INR | $249M | 15.0× | 2.1× | 0.7× | 37.6% | — | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.5% | -0.0× | 129 |
Peers = companies sharing AESI's sector (Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas) with collected SEC financials. Multiples use the most recent end-of-day close and latest fiscal-year fundamentals (trailing, not forward). Missing cells mean the peer never reported that line item, has no collected price, or has a non-positive denominator. Not investment advice.
Earns -7.84pts against its cost of capital — capital is being consumed, not created.
| Period | ROIC | Cost of capital | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 12.3% | 7.3% (today's — no rate published for this year) | 5.0pts |
| FY2022 | 30.1% | 8.4% | 21.7pts |
| FY2023 | 22.5% | 7.1% | 15.4pts |
| FY2024 | 6.5% | 7.3% (today's — no rate published for this year) | -0.9pts |
| FY2025 | -0.5% | 7.3% (today's — no rate published for this year) | -7.9pts |
| Now | -2.8% | 7.3% | -10.1pts |
| Fiscal year | Gross margin | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 37.2% | 27.3% | 2.5% |
| FY2022 | 53.1% | 48.1% | 45.0% |
| FY2023 | 51.1% | 43.2% | 17.2% |
| FY2024 | 22.0% | 10.8% | 5.7% |
| FY2025 | 13.8% | -1.0% | -4.6% |
Return on equity (-4%) and return on invested capital (-3%) are within a couple of points in FY2025, so the headline return is the operating return — there is no meaningful leverage effect to strip out.
$153M of goodwill — 8% of invested capital. The gap is what was paid above the fair value of what was bought; it is real capital shareholders provided, so neither bar is the whole answer.
ROIC ex-goodwill is -0.55% against -0.51% reported — the return is earned on a capital base inflated by what was paid for acquisitions, not by the operating business alone.
Free cash flow has fallen short of reported profit in 3 of the last three years.
Reported free cash flow is -$31M; after share-based compensation it is -$64M. The difference is a real cost that the cash flow statement adds back.
Debt is present but there is no positive EBITDA or no reported interest expense, so coverage cannot be measured.
Ladder as of 2025-12-31 (10-K); cash from the 2025-12-31 balance sheet; FCF from FY2025. No cash figure on the matching balance sheet, so no coverage line is drawn.
Balance sheet at 2025-12-31. Undrawn revolving credit is not shown: the tag is collected but not yet mapped through to the API.
No material counter-signal in the checked set: net debt / EBITDA, interest coverage, stressed coverage, maturity schedule vs cash and one year of FCF, liquidity ratios.
Missing from our data, so excluded from this answer: interest_expense.
No positive free cash flow to discount, so the price cannot be expressed as a growth requirement.
No material counter-signal in the checked set: reverse-DCF implied growth, historical FCF CAGR, per-year FCF growth distribution, reporting-basis breaks, discount rate used, free-cash-flow basis (stock comp charged?).
Missing from our data, so excluded from this answer: free_cash_flow.
| Step | Amount | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | −$50M | −$50M |
| Share-based comp | $33M | −$17M |
| Other non-cash & working capital | $134M | $117M |
| Operating cash flow | $117M | $117M |
| Capex | −$148M | −$31M |
| Free cash flow | −$31M | −$31M |
| FCF after SBC | −$64M | −$64M |
| Fiscal year | Revenue growth | Receivables growth | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | 180.0% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2023 | 27.2% | -3.0% | -30.2 points |
| FY2024 | 72.0% | 133.2% | 61.2 points |
| FY2025 | 3.7% | 8.9% | 5.2 points |
| Fiscal year | DSO | DIO | DPO | Cash conversion cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | not reported | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2022 | 55.5 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2023 | 42.3 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2024 | 57.4 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2025 | 60.2 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| Fiscal year | Accruals / assets |
|---|---|
| FY2021 | not reported |
| FY2022 | 1.5 percent |
| FY2023 | -15.3 percent |
| FY2024 | -10.0 percent |
| FY2025 | -7.5 percent |
SBC is added back inside operating cash flow, so reported free cash flow treats shares issued to employees as free. Percent of revenue says how expensive the payroll is; percent of operating cash flow says how much of the cash exists only because the charge was added back. The buyback offset is buybacks over SBC — below 1.0 the repurchase does not cover the shares issued.
Figures are the latest fiscal year (FY2025) from the company's own filings, not a trailing-twelve-month window — Q2 reads fiscal years throughout so the cash-conversion ratios and these share one basis. A blank is a line the filer did not report; it is never read as zero.