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Held by 173 of 6,047 reporting institutions (90th percentile) — extremely crowded.
Data as of Q2 2026
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Total shares institutions bought (green) vs sold (red) each quarter across all holders.
Inferred from quarter-over-quarter change in each fund's 13F position (new stakes count as buys, exits as sells). Not tick-level trades.
Total return (dividends reinvested) vs the market, from quarter-end prices.
Above 0 = ahead of the S&P 500 since the window start; below 0 = behind. Rising means it's pulling ahead.
How far the stock fell below its prior peak. Deeper, longer drawdowns = a rougher ride to the same return.
Quarter-end, dividend-adjusted (total return). Beta & volatility from quarterly returns (annualized). Benchmark is the S&P 500 (SPY total return). Annual returns compound the quarters ending in each calendar year; the first and last years in a window may be partial. Past performance doesn't predict future results.
Solve the discounted cash flow backwards, then stress-test the assumptions.
Average free cash flow across the last 2 positive fiscal years (FY2023, FY2025). Smooths the cycle. Stock compensation is NOT charged — it is added back inside operating cash flow.
To be worth $8.12 today, the market must believe free cash flow compounds 22.7%/yr for a decade (off $18.4M on the 3-yr avg basis).
The market's 22.7% is more optimistic than its 9-yr track record.
Default is 6.4% — this company's computed cost of capital (computed WACC), the same rate the Analysis tab discounts at.
2-stage DCF · 0.21B shares (market data) · net debt $764.2M
mean -116.2% · volatility σ 156% · implied rate exceeded in 0/5 yrs
Central path = implied 22.7%/yr growth; shaded band = ±1σ (156%) of this company's historical FCF volatility, widening with time. The wider the band, the less certain the growth.
Reverse DCF: rather than guessing a fair value, we solve for the growth the current price implies, then you stress-test the assumptions. Enterprise value of the FCF stream, less net debt, ÷ shares. Educational — not a recommendation.
What the company returns to shareholders — and whether it's covered by cash.
The dividend exceeds free cash flow (337%) — funded from the balance sheet or debt, a red flag if it persists. Last year: $50.6M dividends + $0 buybacks = $50.6M returned on $15.0M FCF.
Yields use the latest fiscal-year dividends/buybacks over current market cap. Dividends and buybacks from the SEC cash-flow statement; payout coverage vs net income and free cash flow. Educational — not a recommendation.
How management deployed cash over 10 years — and what it earned on reinvestment.
A reinvestment story — most cash went back into growth rather than to shareholders.
Modest payoff on reinvested capital. Current ROIC on all capital: 11%. Rough measure (includes maintenance capex).
Cash uses aggregated from the SEC cash-flow statement over 10 fiscal years. "Return on reinvestment" is a rough proxy — operating-income change ÷ cumulative CapEx + M&A — and includes maintenance capex. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-10-08
How a revenue dollar becomes profit — FY2025
Dividends and buybacks are cash paid out, shown here against the same year's profit for scale — not funded from it.
Each value shows its share of revenue below it (common-size).
| Line Item | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | FY2020 | FY2019 | FY2018 | FY2017 | FY2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.68B 100.0% | $4.47B 100.0% | $4.33B 100.0% | $3.62B 100.0% | $2.66B 100.0% | $1.98B 100.0% | $2.96B 100.0% | $3.08B 100.0% | $3.32B 100.0% | $2.93B 100.0% |
| Cost of Revenue | $89.5M 1.9% | $83.7M 1.9% | $83.4M 1.9% | $68.0M 1.9% | $50.6M 1.9% | $43.5M 2.2% | $61.3M 2.1% | $67.9M 2.2% | — | — |
| Selling, General & Admin | $312.8M 6.7% | $279.9M 6.3% | $285.0M 6.6% | $239.3M 6.6% | $210.9M 7.9% | $171.4M 8.6% | $212.5M 7.2% | $229.3M 7.4% | $244.7M 7.4% | $221.1M 7.5% |
| Total Operating Expenses | $4.31B 92.2% | $4.15B 92.7% | $4.02B 92.8% | $3.35B 92.7% | $2.52B 94.8% | $2.05B 103.4% | $2.80B 94.6% | $2.96B 96.0% | $3.05B 91.8% | $2.75B 93.9% |
| Operating Income | $364.4M 7.8% | $324.5M 7.3% | $314.0M 7.2% | $264.4M 7.3% | $139.5M 5.2% | -$66.8M -3.4% | $159.9M 5.4% | $123.5M 4.0% | $272.9M 8.2% | $178.6M 6.1% |
| Interest Expense | $13.7M 0.3% | $47.2M 1.1% | $32.3M 0.7% | $43.8M 1.2% | $49.5M 1.9% | $33.4M 1.7% | $52.1M 1.8% | $52.9M 1.7% | $68.4M 2.1% | $66.9M 2.3% |
| Other Income (Expense), net | -$1.5M -0.0% | -$3.9M -0.1% | -$1.2M -0.0% | -$287K -0.0% | $2.2M 0.1% | $2.3M 0.1% | -$2.1M -0.1% | $270K 0.0% | -$435K -0.0% | -$2.4M -0.1% |
| Pretax Income | $341.3M 7.3% | $259.3M 5.8% | $278.1M 6.4% | $226.4M 6.3% | $77.8M 2.9% | -$131.9M -6.6% | $119.0M 4.0% | $85.2M 2.8% | $182.8M 5.5% | $138.6M 4.7% |
| Income Tax Expense | $128.7M 2.8% | $109.9M 2.5% | $95.7M 2.2% | $85.5M 2.4% | $31.9M 1.2% | $17.5M 0.9% | $38.8M 1.3% | $48.1M 1.6% | $53.3M 1.6% | $59.6M 2.0% |
| Net Income | $212.1M 4.5% | $148.8M 3.3% | $181.3M 4.2% | $140.3M 3.9% | $45.5M 1.7% | -$149.5M -7.5% | $79.9M 2.7% | $36.8M 1.2% | $129.2M 3.9% | $78.8M 2.7% |
| Per Share | ||||||||||
| EPS (Basic) | $1.01 | $0.71 | $0.86 | $0.67 | $0.22 | -$0.72 | $0.39 | $0.18 | $0.61 | $0.37 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.01 | $0.71 | $0.86 | $0.67 | $0.22 | -$0.72 | $0.38 | $0.18 | $0.61 | $0.37 |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Basic) | 210.7M | 210.7M | 210.6M | 210.6M | 210.4M | 208.4M | 207.0M | 209.1M | 210.9M | 210.6M |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Diluted) | 210.7M | 210.7M | 210.6M | 210.6M | 210.5M | 208.7M | 207.6M | 210.1M | 212.0M | 211.0M |
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (annual, fiscal year). Quarterly flow items are derived from cumulative filings; balance-sheet figures are as-of each period end. Ratios and margins are computed, not reported.
EOD close · as of 2026-10-08
Where each multiple sits in its own 14-yr range · 20th pct blended
Dot = today · shaded = middle 50% · line = median. Lower percentile = cheaper vs its own 14-yr history.
Is the profit real, and how strong is the balance sheet?
FY2025 · every deduction from revenue to net income
DuPont — the three levers
ROE 28% against ROIC 11% — 16% of the return on equity comes from leverage and buybacks rather than from the operating business.
Equity is the year-end figure. On average equity over the two year-ends, ROE is 33.2% — the two diverge when buybacks or issuance move equity during the year.
What the company owes vs. what it holds
This shows debt/cash structure and net leverage. The year-by-year maturity schedule is on the Debt & Leverage tab.
Latest year: profit growth vs revenue growth
High operating leverage: profit moved 2.6× as fast as sales — great in an upturn, painful in a downturn.
Each line as % of revenue — the trend in color
| % of revenue | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of Revenue | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| SG&A | 7.4 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.7 |
| Operating Income | 4.0 | 5.4 | -3.4 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 7.8 |
| Income Tax | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.8 |
| Net Income | 1.2 | 2.7 | -7.5 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 |
Green = margin-favorable vs the row's own range · red = unfavorable.
The metrics that matter, over time
A 30-second read on ARCO: price, valuation and headline fundamentals from SEC filings. The four questions at the top of the page are where the judgements live.
How much the company owes, how it's trended, and how comfortably it's serviced.
Cash of $373.4M covers the $11.8M due within a year 31.7× over. Scheduled principal only (excludes interest & revolver draws). As of 2025-12-31 (20-F).
Green ≤ 1.5× · amber ≤ 3× · red > 3× (leverage relative to cash earnings).
Interest is easily covered by operating profit. Effective rate ~1.2% on $1.14B of debt.
Cash of $373.4M fully covers short-term debt of $0.
Mostly long-term debt (balance-sheet current vs non-current split). See the maturity ladder above for the year-by-year repayment schedule.
Debt, cash, interest and equity from the SEC balance sheet & income statement. Effective rate = interest ÷ average debt. Maturity ladder from the SEC long-term-debt repayment schedule. Educational — not a recommendation.
Top 40 institutional holders — bubble size is position value, color is the move since last quarter. Hover any holder for detail.
Drag any bubble to rearrange · size = dollar value of the position
Ranked against 26 sector peers with collected financials. Valuation from latest close × latest fiscal-year fundamentals; 13F conviction as of 2026-06-30.
Percentile is “goodness” within the peer set (100 = best). For valuation and leverage that means cheaper / less-levered ranks higher.
| Company | Mkt cap ▼ | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/S | Rev gr | Gross | Net | ROE | ROIC | Net D/EBITDA | 13F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | $167.6B | 19.8× | 16.1× | 6.2× | 3.7% | — | 31.9% | -478% | 22.0% | 3.1× | 3,384 |
| CMG | $41.4B | 28.7× | 17.9× | 3.5× | 5.4% | — | 12.9% | 54.3% | 54.3% | -0.1× | 1,161 |
| YUM | $39.0B | 25.8× | 13.8× | 4.8× | 8.8% | 69.8% | 19.0% | -21.3% | -21.4% | -0.2× | 1,398 |
| QSR | $24.6B | 30.1× | 15.7× | 2.6× | 12.2% | — | 11.4% | 29.6% | 6.4% | 5.5× | 563 |
| DRI | $22.7B | 19.3× | 11.6× | 1.7× | 9.4% | 20.3% | 9.1% | 54.7% | 26.6% | 1.0× | 1,046 |
| ARMK | $14.6B | 45.5× | 15.3× | 0.8× | 6.4% | — | 1.8% | 10.4% | 3.8% | 3.8× | 522 |
| YUMC | $14.1B | 16.6× | 7.8× | 1.2× | 4.4% | — | 7.9% | 17.3% | 17.2% | -0.3× | 640 |
| TXRH | $10.7B | 26.7× | 15.5× | 1.8× | 9.4% | — | 7.0% | 28.4% | 28.4% | -0.2× | 620 |
| EAT | $8.0B | 17.5× | 9.4× | 1.4× | 7.9% | — | 8.4% | 110% | 110% | -0.1× | 493 |
| CAVA | $6.3B | 100.6× | 47.0× | 5.4× | 22.4% | — | 5.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | -2.2× | 520 |
| CAKE | $5.3B | 34.9× | 19.4× | 1.4× | 4.7% | — | 4.0% | 34.0% | 13.9% | 1.4× | 338 |
| WING | $3.2B | 19.1× | 20.8× | 4.6× | 11.4% | — | 25.0% | -23.7% | 36.9% | 5.0× | 407 |
| ARCO | $1.7B | 8.0× | 4.7× | 0.4× | 4.7% | 98.1% | 4.5% | 27.5% | 11.1% | 1.4× | 173 |
| BJRI | $1.3B | 27.6× | 10.8× | 0.9× | 3.1% | 74.7% | 3.5% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 0.5× | 186 |
| CBRL | $1.2B | 26.9× | 9.5× | 0.4× | 0.4% | 69.0% | 1.3% | 10.0% | 4.9% | 2.5× | 271 |
| BH | $1.2B | — | 19.3× | 3.0× | 9.2% | 59.2% | -9.5% | -7.2% | -4.9% | -0.4× | 115 |
| BLMN | $726M | 84.8× | 6.8× | 0.2× | 0.1% | 70.2% | 0.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 3.4× | 231 |
| FWRG | $676M | 35.4× | 10.0× | 0.6× | 20.3% | — | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.8× | 202 |
| PZZA | $640M | 21.6× | 7.3× | 0.3× | -0.3% | — | 1.5% | -6.9% | 11.3% | 3.8× | 255 |
| KRUS | $485M | — | 47.1× | 1.7× | 18.9% | — | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -5.1× | 145 |
| LOCO | $455M | 16.6× | 8.6× | 0.9× | 3.6% | — | 5.4% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 0.8× | 145 |
| NATH | $417M | 21.0× | 14.2× | 2.6× | 9.4% | 34.3% | 12.4% | -141% | 59.0% | 0.8× | 124 |
| DIN | $373M | 26.6× | — | 0.4× | 8.2% | 40.9% | 1.9% | -6.2% | 1.9% | — | 149 |
| PTLO | $283M | 14.4× | 8.4× | 0.4× | 3.0% | — | 2.6% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 4.5× | 173 |
| PC | $274M | — | — | 82.0× | -12.2% | 24.8% | -127% | -52.1% | -50.5% | — | 2 |
Peers = companies sharing ARCO's sector (Retail-Eating Places) with collected SEC financials. Multiples use the most recent end-of-day close and latest fiscal-year fundamentals (trailing, not forward). Missing cells mean the peer never reported that line item, has no collected price, or has a non-positive denominator. Not investment advice.
Earns 2.96pts above its cost of capital, without much margin of safety.
| Period | ROIC | Cost of capital | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | 5.8% | 6.4% (today's — no rate published for this year) | -0.6pts |
| FY2020 | -2.8% | 6.4% (today's — no rate published for this year) | -9.2pts |
| FY2021 | 6.4% | 6.7% | -0.3pts |
| FY2022 | 11.1% | 5.7% | 5.4pts |
| FY2023 | 10.5% | 5.4% | 5.1pts |
| FY2024 | 10.4% | 6.3% | 4.1pts |
| FY2025 | 9.3% | 5.1% | 4.2pts |
| Now | 11.1% | 6.4% | 4.8pts |
| Fiscal year | Gross margin | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2016 | not reported | 6.1% | 2.7% |
| FY2017 | not reported | 8.2% | 3.9% |
| FY2018 | 97.8% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| FY2019 | 97.9% | 5.4% | 2.7% |
| FY2020 | 97.8% | -3.4% | -7.5% |
| FY2021 | 98.1% | 5.2% | 1.7% |
| FY2022 | 98.1% | 7.3% | 3.9% |
| FY2023 | 98.1% | 7.2% | 4.2% |
| FY2024 | 98.1% | 7.3% | 3.3% |
| FY2025 | 98.1% | 7.8% | 4.5% |
Leverage and buybacks account for 16 points of the 28% return on equity in FY2025. The business earns 11% on the capital it employs; the rest is balance sheet.
ROE is on average equity; ROIC is NOPAT over average invested capital (debt plus equity less excess cash). The gap is not a single adjustment.
$17M of goodwill — 1% of invested capital. The gap is what was paid above the fair value of what was bought; it is real capital shareholders provided, so neither bar is the whole answer.
The spread was positive in only 4 of the last 5 years.
Free cash flow has fallen short of reported profit in 3 of the last three years.
Shares outstanding are up 3% since FY2019 — per-share cash flow has grown more slowly than the totals above, and the gap is the owners'.
Missing from our data, so excluded from this answer: share_based_compensation.
Covers interest 18.7x even after a 30% EBITDA decline.
| EBITDA decline | Interest coverage |
|---|---|
| 0% | 26.68x |
| 5% | 25.34x |
| 10% | 24.01x |
| 15% | 22.67x |
| 20% | 21.34x |
| 25% | 20.01x |
| 30% | 18.67x |
| 35% | 17.34x |
| 40% | 16.01x |
| 45% | 14.67x |
| 50% | 13.34x |
| 55% | 12.00x |
| 60% | 10.67x |
Ladder as of 2025-12-31 (20-F); cash from the 2025-12-31 balance sheet; FCF from FY2025.
Balance sheet at 2025-12-31. Undrawn revolving credit is not shown: the tag is collected but not yet mapped through to the API.
Net debt is 3.5x EBITDA, so coverage today depends on earnings holding up rather than on the balance sheet.
At $8.12, free cash flow must compound 27.55%/yr for 10 years. It has no positive compounding record to compare against.
| Fiscal year | FCF growth | Price requires |
|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | −10.3% | 27.6% |
| FY2023 | −83.0% | 27.6% |
| FY2024 | −378.0% | 27.6% |
The implied rate of 27.55% has not been achieved in any of the last 3 years.
| Step | Amount | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | $212M | $212M |
| Share-based comp | not reported | not reported |
| Other non-cash & working capital | $84M | $296M |
| Operating cash flow | $296M | $296M |
| Capex | −$281M | $15M |
| Free cash flow | $15M | $15M |
| Fiscal year | Revenue growth | Receivables growth | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | -32.9% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2021 | 34.0% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2022 | 36.0% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2023 | 19.7% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2024 | 3.2% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2025 | 4.7% | not reported | not reported |
| Fiscal year | Accruals / assets |
|---|---|
| FY2019 | -5.6 percent |
| FY2020 | -7.2 percent |
| FY2021 | -9.0 percent |
| FY2022 | -7.8 percent |
| FY2023 | -6.7 percent |
| FY2024 | -4.1 percent |
| FY2025 | -2.2 percent |