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Held by 338 of 6,047 reporting institutions (95th percentile) — extremely crowded.
Data as of Q2 2026
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Solve the discounted cash flow backwards, then stress-test the assumptions.
Average free cash flow across the last 3 positive fiscal years (FY2024, FY2024, FY2025). Smooths the cycle. Stock compensation is NOT charged — it is added back inside operating cash flow.
To be worth $109.00 today, the market must believe free cash flow compounds 14.1%/yr for a decade (off $110.0M on the 3-yr avg basis).
On the basis ($82.3M) the requirement is 17.8%/yr. Shares issued to employees are added back in operating cash flow, so this basis treats them as free.
The market's 14.1% is more optimistic than its 9-yr track record.
Default is 7.3% — this company's computed cost of capital (computed WACC), the same rate the Analysis tab discounts at.
2-stage DCF · 0.05B shares (market data) · net debt $414.3M
mean -7.9% · volatility σ 70% · implied rate exceeded in 4/8 yrs
Central path = implied 14.1%/yr growth; shaded band = ±1σ (70%) of this company's historical FCF volatility, widening with time. The wider the band, the less certain the growth.
Reverse DCF: rather than guessing a fair value, we solve for the growth the current price implies, then you stress-test the assumptions. Enterprise value of the FCF stream, less net debt, ÷ shares. Educational — not a recommendation.
Ranked against 26 sector peers with collected financials. Valuation from latest close × latest fiscal-year fundamentals; 13F conviction as of 2026-06-30.
Percentile is “goodness” within the peer set (100 = best). For valuation and leverage that means cheaper / less-levered ranks higher.
| Company | Mkt cap ▼ | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/S | Rev gr | Gross | Net | ROE | ROIC | Net D/EBITDA | 13F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | $166.5B | 19.7× | 16.1× | 6.2× | 3.7% | — | 31.9% | -478% | 22.0% | 3.1× | 3,384 |
| CMG | $40.1B | 27.7× | 17.3× | 3.4× | 5.4% | — | 12.9% | 54.3% | 54.3% | -0.1× | 1,161 |
| YUM | $39.5B | 26.1× | 14.0× | 4.8× | 8.8% | 69.8% | 19.0% | -21.3% | -21.4% | -0.2× | 1,398 |
| QSR | $24.7B | 30.2× | 15.8× | 2.6× | 12.2% | — | 11.4% | 29.6% | 6.4% | 5.5× | 563 |
| DRI | $22.4B | 19.0× | 11.4× | 1.7× | 9.4% | 20.3% | 9.1% | 54.7% | 26.6% | 1.0× | 1,046 |
| YUMC | $14.5B | 17.1× | 8.1× | 1.2× | 4.4% | — | 7.9% | 17.3% | 17.2% | -0.3× | 640 |
| ARMK | $14.4B | 45.0× | 15.2× | 0.8× | 6.4% | — | 1.8% | 10.4% | 3.8% | 3.8× | 522 |
| TXRH | $10.6B | 26.5× | 15.4× | 1.8× | 9.4% | — | 7.0% | 28.4% | 28.4% | -0.2× | 620 |
| EAT | $8.1B | 17.8× | 9.6× | 1.4× | 7.9% | — | 8.4% | 110% | 110% | -0.1× | 493 |
| CAVA | $6.3B | 99.3× | 46.4× | 5.3× | 22.4% | — | 5.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | -2.2× | 520 |
| CAKE | $5.4B | 35.4× | 19.6× | 1.4× | 4.7% | — | 4.0% | 34.0% | 13.9% | 1.4× | 338 |
| WING | $3.3B | 19.7× | 21.3× | 4.8× | 11.4% | — | 25.0% | -23.7% | 36.9% | 5.0× | 407 |
| ARCO | $1.6B | 7.7× | 4.5× | 0.3× | 4.7% | 98.1% | 4.5% | 27.5% | 11.1% | 1.4× | 173 |
| CBRL | $1.3B | 27.9× | 9.8× | 0.4× | 0.4% | 69.0% | 1.3% | 10.0% | 4.9% | 2.5× | 271 |
| BJRI | $1.3B | 27.7× | 10.9× | 0.9× | 3.1% | 74.7% | 3.5% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 0.5× | 186 |
| BH | $1.2B | — | 19.1× | 2.9× | 9.2% | 59.2% | -9.5% | -7.2% | -4.9% | -0.4× | 115 |
| BLMN | $736M | 86.0× | 6.8× | 0.2× | 0.1% | 70.2% | 0.2% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 3.4× | 231 |
| FWRG | $678M | 35.4× | 10.0× | 0.6× | 20.3% | — | 1.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.8× | 202 |
| PZZA | $650M | 21.9× | 7.3× | 0.3× | -0.3% | — | 1.5% | -6.9% | 11.3% | 3.8× | 255 |
| KRUS | $492M | — | 47.9× | 1.7× | 18.9% | — | -0.7% | -0.8% | -0.8% | -5.1× | 145 |
| LOCO | $463M | 16.9× | 8.8× | 0.9× | 3.6% | — | 5.4% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 0.8× | 145 |
| NATH | $417M | 21.0× | 14.2× | 2.6× | 9.4% | 34.3% | 12.4% | -141% | 59.0% | 0.8× | 124 |
| DIN | $372M | 26.4× | — | 0.4× | 8.2% | 40.9% | 1.9% | -6.2% | 1.9% | — | 149 |
| PTLO | $292M | 14.9× | 8.5× | 0.4× | 3.0% | — | 2.6% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 4.5× | 173 |
| PC | $274M | — | — | 82.0× | -12.2% | 24.8% | -127% | -52.1% | -50.5% | — | 2 |
Peers = companies sharing CAKE's sector (Retail-Eating Places) with collected SEC financials. Multiples use the most recent end-of-day close and latest fiscal-year fundamentals (trailing, not forward). Missing cells mean the peer never reported that line item, has no collected price, or has a non-positive denominator. Not investment advice.
What the company returns to shareholders — and whether it's covered by cash.
The dividend is comfortably covered — only 34% of free cash flow, leaving room to grow it and fund buybacks. Last year: $52.2M dividends + $153.9M buybacks = $206.1M returned on $155.1M FCF.
1 consecutive years of dividend increases · 2%/yr.
Yields use the latest fiscal-year dividends/buybacks over current market cap. Dividends and buybacks from the SEC cash-flow statement; payout coverage vs net income and free cash flow. Educational — not a recommendation.
How management deployed cash over 10 years — and what it earned on reinvestment.
A balanced mix of reinvestment and shareholder returns.
Operating income fell despite reinvestment — a warning on capital productivity. Current ROIC on all capital: 14%. Rough measure (includes maintenance capex).
Cash uses aggregated from the SEC cash-flow statement over 10 fiscal years. "Return on reinvestment" is a rough proxy — operating-income change ÷ cumulative CapEx + M&A — and includes maintenance capex. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-10-12
Where each multiple sits in its own 3-yr range · 92th pct blended
Dot = today · shaded = middle 50% · line = median. Lower percentile = cheaper vs its own 3-yr history.
Is the profit real, and how strong is the balance sheet?
FY2025 · every deduction from revenue to net income
DuPont — the three levers
ROE 34% against ROIC 14% — 20% of the return on equity comes from leverage and buybacks rather than from the operating business.
What the company owes vs. what it holds
This shows debt/cash structure and net leverage. The year-by-year maturity schedule is on the Debt & Leverage tab.
Latest year: profit growth vs revenue growth
Low operating leverage — profit tracks sales closely (stable, less cyclical).
Each line as % of revenue — the trend in color
| % of revenue | FY2019 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of Revenue | 22.8 | 22.6 | 23.1 | 22.3 | — | — | — | — |
| SG&A | 6.6 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.5 |
| Operating Income | 5.1 | 4.2 | -17.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Income Tax | 0.4 | 0.5 | -5.2 | -0.0 | -0.3 | -0.0 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Net Income | 4.2 | 5.1 | -12.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.9 |
Green = margin-favorable vs the row's own range · red = unfavorable.
The metrics that matter, over time
A 30-second read on CAKE: price, valuation and headline fundamentals from SEC filings. The four questions at the top of the page are where the judgements live.
How much the company owes, how it's trended, and how comfortably it's serviced.
Green ≤ 1.5× · amber ≤ 3× · red > 3× (leverage relative to cash earnings).
Interest expense isn't separately reported — often netted into “other income (expense), net.”
Cash of $215.7M fully covers short-term debt of $68.8M.
Mostly long-term debt (balance-sheet current vs non-current split). A year-by-year maturity schedule wasn't disclosed for this issuer.
Debt, cash, interest and equity from the SEC balance sheet & income statement. Effective rate = interest ÷ average debt. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-10-12
How a revenue dollar becomes profit — FY2025
Dividends and buybacks are cash paid out, shown here against the same year's profit for scale — not funded from it. This year they exceeded net income, so the ribbons are capped at earnings and understate what was actually returned.
Each value shows its share of revenue below it (common-size).
| Line Item | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2021 | FY2020 | FY2019 | FY2019 | FY2018 | FY2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.75B 100.0% | $3.58B 100.0% | $3.44B 100.0% | $3.30B 100.0% | $2.93B 100.0% | $1.98B 100.0% | $2.48B 100.0% | $2.33B 100.0% | $2.26B 100.0% | $2.28B 100.0% |
| Cost of Revenue | — | — | — | — | $653.1M 22.3% | $458.3M 23.1% | $561.8M 22.6% | $532.9M 22.8% | $519.4M 23.0% | $526.6M 23.1% |
| Selling, General & Admin | $244.9M 6.5% | $228.7M 6.4% | $217.4M 6.3% | $205.8M 6.2% | $186.1M 6.4% | $157.6M 7.9% | $160.2M 6.5% | $154.8M 6.6% | $141.5M 6.3% | $146.0M 6.4% |
| Total Operating Expenses | $3.56B 95.0% | $3.40B 95.0% | $3.33B 96.8% | $3.26B 98.8% | $2.85B 97.2% | $2.33B 117.5% | $2.38B 95.8% | $2.21B 94.9% | $2.11B 93.2% | $2.07B 91.2% |
| Operating Income | $187.3M 5.0% | $178.3M 5.0% | $108.6M 3.2% | $38.9M 1.2% | $82.3M 2.8% | -$347.4M -17.5% | $103.6M 4.2% | $118.9M 5.1% | $152.8M 6.8% | $201.0M 8.8% |
| Other Income (Expense), net | $1.9M 0.1% | $2.8M 0.1% | $1.6M 0.0% | $1.4M 0.0% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pretax Income | $162.9M 4.3% | $171.0M 4.8% | $100.0M 2.9% | $32.9M 1.0% | $71.6M 2.4% | -$356.0M -18.0% | $140.3M 5.7% | $107.4M 4.6% | $146.5M 6.5% | $191.8M 8.4% |
| Income Tax Expense | $14.5M 0.4% | $14.3M 0.4% | -$1.3M -0.0% | -$10.2M -0.3% | -$753K -0.0% | -$102.7M -5.2% | $13.0M 0.5% | $8.4M 0.4% | -$10.9M -0.5% | $52.3M 2.3% |
| Net Income | $148.0M 3.9% | $157.0M 4.4% | $101.0M 2.9% | $43.0M 1.3% | $72.0M 2.5% | -$253.4M -12.8% | $127.3M 5.1% | $99.0M 4.2% | — | — |
| Per Share | ||||||||||
| EPS (Basic) | $3.17 | $3.28 | $2.10 | $0.87 | $1.03 | -$6.32 | $2.90 | $2.19 | $3.35 | $2.91 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.06 | $3.20 | $2.07 | $0.86 | $1.01 | -$6.32 | $2.86 | $2.14 | $3.27 | $2.83 |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Basic) | 46.8M | 47.8M | 48.3M | 49.8M | 47.5M | 43.9M | 43.9M | 45.3M | 46.9M | 48.0M |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Diluted) | 48.6M | 49.0M | 49.0M | 50.4M | 48.5M | 43.9M | 44.5M | 46.2M | 48.2M | 49.4M |
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (annual, fiscal year). Quarterly flow items are derived from cumulative filings; balance-sheet figures are as-of each period end. Ratios and margins are computed, not reported.
Total shares institutions bought (green) vs sold (red) each quarter across all holders.
Inferred from quarter-over-quarter change in each fund's 13F position (new stakes count as buys, exits as sells). Not tick-level trades.
Earns 0.32pts above its cost of capital, without much margin of safety.
| Period | ROIC | Cost of capital | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | 4.8% | 7.3% (today's — no rate published for this year) | -2.6pts |
| FY2020 | -19.2% | 7.3% (today's — no rate published for this year) | -26.5pts |
| FY2021 | 4.1% | 7.3% (today's — no rate published for this year) | -3.3pts |
| FY2023 | 1.9% | 7.3% (today's — no rate published for this year) | -5.5pts |
| FY2024 | 5.0% | 7.3% (today's — no rate published for this year) | -2.4pts |
| FY2024 | 7.6% | 7.3% (today's — no rate published for this year) | 0.3pts |
| FY2025 | 7.7% | 7.3% (today's — no rate published for this year) | 0.4pts |
| Now | 13.9% | 7.3% | 6.6pts |
| Fiscal year | Gross margin | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2017 | 76.9% | 8.8% | not reported |
| FY2018 | 77.0% | 6.8% | not reported |
| FY2019 | 77.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% |
| FY2019 | 77.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% |
| FY2020 | 76.9% | -17.5% | -12.8% |
| FY2021 | 77.7% | 2.8% | 2.5% |
| FY2023 | not reported | 1.2% | 1.3% |
| FY2024 | not reported | 3.2% | 2.9% |
| FY2024 | not reported | 5.0% | 4.4% |
| FY2025 | not reported | 5.0% | 4.0% |
Leverage and buybacks account for 20 points of the 34% return on equity in FY2025. The business earns 14% on the capital it employs; the rest is balance sheet.
ROE is on average equity; ROIC is NOPAT over average invested capital (debt plus equity less excess cash). The gap is not a single adjustment.
$1M of goodwill — 0% of invested capital. The gap is what was paid above the fair value of what was bought; it is real capital shareholders provided, so neither bar is the whole answer.
The spread is 0.32pts and would invert under a ±2% move in WACC, so the verdict rests on the cost-of-capital assumption rather than on the business.
Converts 1.11x of reported profit into free cash flow over 5 years, with accruals negative.
Reported free cash flow is $155M; after share-based compensation it is $128M. The difference is a real cost that the cash flow statement adds back.
Debt is present but there is no positive EBITDA or no reported interest expense, so coverage cannot be measured.
Balance sheet at 2025-12-30. Undrawn revolving credit is not shown: the tag is collected but not yet mapped through to the API.
No material counter-signal in the checked set: net debt / EBITDA, interest coverage, stressed coverage, maturity schedule vs cash and one year of FCF, liquidity ratios.
Missing from our data, so excluded from this answer: interest_expense.
At $108.45, free cash flow must compound 16.96%/yr for 10 years. It has done 1.13%/yr over 6 years.
| Fiscal year | FCF growth | Price requires |
|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | −132.7% | 17.0% |
| FY2023 | −66.1% | 17.0% |
| FY2024 | 35.1% | 17.0% |
| FY2024 | 61.5% | 17.0% |
| FY2025 | 43.6% | 17.0% |
The implied rate has been matched or beaten in 3 of the last 5 years.
| Step | Amount | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | $148M | $148M |
| Share-based comp | $27M | $176M |
| Other non-cash & working capital | $126M | $301M |
| Operating cash flow | $301M | $301M |
| Capex | −$146M | $155M |
| Free cash flow | $155M | $155M |
| FCF after SBC | $128M | $128M |
| Fiscal year | Revenue growth | Receivables growth | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | -20.1% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2021 | 47.6% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2023 | 12.8% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2024 | 4.1% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2024 | 4.1% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2025 | 4.8% | not reported | not reported |
| Fiscal year | Accruals / assets |
|---|---|
| FY2019 | -3.2 percent |
| FY2020 | -9.3 percent |
| FY2021 | -5.0 percent |
| FY2023 | -4.3 percent |
| FY2024 | -4.1 percent |
| FY2024 | -3.7 percent |
| FY2025 | -4.7 percent |
SBC is added back inside operating cash flow, so reported free cash flow treats shares issued to employees as free. Percent of revenue says how expensive the payroll is; percent of operating cash flow says how much of the cash exists only because the charge was added back. The buyback offset is buybacks over SBC — below 1.0 the repurchase does not cover the shares issued.
Figures are the latest fiscal year (FY2025) from the company's own filings, not a trailing-twelve-month window — Q2 reads fiscal years throughout so the cash-conversion ratios and these share one basis. A blank is a line the filer did not report; it is never read as zero.
Top 40 institutional holders — bubble size is position value, color is the move since last quarter. Hover any holder for detail.
Drag any bubble to rearrange · size = dollar value of the position
Total return (dividends reinvested) vs the market, from quarter-end prices.
Above 0 = ahead of the S&P 500 since the window start; below 0 = behind. Rising means it's pulling ahead.
How far the stock fell below its prior peak. Deeper, longer drawdowns = a rougher ride to the same return.
Quarter-end, dividend-adjusted (total return). Beta & volatility from quarterly returns (annualized). Benchmark is the S&P 500 (SPY total return). Annual returns compound the quarters ending in each calendar year; the first and last years in a window may be partial. Past performance doesn't predict future results.