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Held by 893 of 2,417 reporting institutions (99th percentile) — extremely crowded.
Data as of Q3 2026
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Top 40 institutional holders — bubble size is position value, color is the move since last quarter. Hover any holder for detail.
Drag any bubble to rearrange · size = dollar value of the position
Total shares institutions bought (green) vs sold (red) each quarter across all holders.
Inferred from quarter-over-quarter change in each fund's 13F position (new stakes count as buys, exits as sells). Not tick-level trades.
Solve the discounted cash flow backwards, then stress-test the assumptions.
Average free cash flow across the last 3 positive fiscal years (FY2023, FY2024, FY2025). Smooths the cycle. Stock compensation is NOT charged — it is added back inside operating cash flow.
To be worth $154.03 today, the market must believe free cash flow compounds -7.0%/yr for a decade (off $19.96B on the 3-yr avg basis).
On the basis ($19.65B) the requirement is -6.8%/yr. Shares issued to employees are added back in operating cash flow, so this basis treats them as free.
The market's -7.0% is more conservative than its 8-yr track record.
Default is 7.9% — this company's computed cost of capital (computed WACC), the same rate the Analysis tab discounts at.
2-stage DCF · 1.22B shares (market data) · net debt -$5.48B
Today's price is outside this grid at every discount rate shown — the assumptions it requires lie beyond the plotted range, which is itself the finding.
mean 1675.5% · volatility σ 4704% · implied rate exceeded in 6/8 yrs
Central path = implied -7.0%/yr growth; shaded band = ±1σ (4704%) of this company's historical FCF volatility, widening with time. The wider the band, the less certain the growth.
Reverse DCF: rather than guessing a fair value, we solve for the growth the current price implies, then you stress-test the assumptions. Enterprise value of the FCF stream, less net debt, ÷ shares. Educational — not a recommendation.
Ranked against 9 sector peers with collected financials. Valuation from latest close × latest fiscal-year fundamentals; 13F conviction as of 2026-09-30.
Percentile is “goodness” within the peer set (100 = best). For valuation and leverage that means cheaper / less-levered ranks higher.
| Company | Mkt cap ▼ | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/S | Rev gr | Gross | Net | ROE | ROIC | Net D/EBITDA | 13F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | $770.0B | 27.9× | — | 2.3× | -5.0% | — | 8.7% | 11.1% | 9.5% | — | 87 |
| CVX | $462.0B | 35.5× | — | 2.4× | -6.8% | 42.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | — | 1,638 |
| COP | $187.7B | 24.3× | — | 3.2× | 7.7% | 62.1% | 13.6% | 12.4% | 12.2% | — | 893 |
| MPC | $124.9B | 33.6× | 13.3× | 0.9× | -4.4% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 23.4% | 8.1% | 2.5× | 765 |
| VLO | $111.5B | 52.8× | 21.2× | 0.9× | -5.5% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 9.9% | 7.1% | 0.8× | 752 |
| PSX | $110.3B | 26.2× | 33.5× | 0.8× | -7.5% | 12.3% | 3.3% | 15.1% | 9.0% | 4.8× | 860 |
| PBF | $9.2B | — | 34.3× | 0.3× | -11.4% | -1.9% | -0.5% | -3.0% | -2.1% | 5.1× | 112 |
| CVI | $5.9B | 216.2× | 12.1× | 0.8× | -5.9% | 4.8% | 0.4% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 2.1× | 46 |
| DK | $4.5B | — | 10.2× | 0.4× | -9.5% | 5.7% | -0.2% | -4.2% | -0.6% | 3.7× | 67 |
| CLMT | $4.4B | — | 25.1× | 1.1× | -1.2% | 5.9% | -0.8% | 4.6% | -2.3% | 8.2× | 35 |
Peers = companies sharing COP's sector (Petroleum Refining) with collected SEC financials. Multiples use the most recent end-of-day close and latest fiscal-year fundamentals (trailing, not forward). Missing cells mean the peer never reported that line item, has no collected price, or has a non-positive denominator. Not investment advice.
What the company returns to shareholders — and whether it's covered by cash.
The dividend is comfortably covered — only 20% of free cash flow, leaving room to grow it and fund buybacks. Last year: $4.00B dividends + $5.02B buybacks = $9.01B returned on $19.80B FCF.
1 consecutive years of dividend increases · -47%/yr.
Yields use the latest fiscal-year dividends/buybacks over current market cap. Dividends and buybacks from the SEC cash-flow statement; payout coverage vs net income and free cash flow. Educational — not a recommendation.
How management deployed cash over 10 years — and what it earned on reinvestment.
A cash-return story — far more went to shareholders than back into the business (mature, low-reinvestment).
Insufficient data. Current ROIC on all capital: 12%. Rough measure (includes maintenance capex).
Cash uses aggregated from the SEC cash-flow statement over 10 fiscal years. "Return on reinvestment" is a rough proxy — operating-income change ÷ cumulative CapEx + M&A — and includes maintenance capex. Educational — not a recommendation.
How much the company owes, how it's trended, and how comfortably it's serviced.
Cash of $6.50B covers all $4.76B of scheduled principal — no refinancing pressure. Scheduled principal only (excludes interest & revolver draws). As of 2025-12-31 (10-K).
Insufficient EBITDA/debt history.
Green ≤ 1.5× · amber ≤ 3× · red > 3× (leverage relative to cash earnings).
Interest expense isn't separately reported — often netted into “other income (expense), net.” Effective rate ~115.3% on $1.02B of debt.
Cash of $6.50B fully covers short-term debt of $1.02B.
Mostly short-term debt (balance-sheet current vs non-current split). See the maturity ladder above for the year-by-year repayment schedule.
Debt, cash, interest and equity from the SEC balance sheet & income statement. Effective rate = interest ÷ average debt. Maturity ladder from the SEC long-term-debt repayment schedule. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-10-30
How a revenue dollar becomes profit — FY2025
Dividends and buybacks are cash paid out, shown here against the same year's profit for scale — not funded from it. This year they exceeded net income, so the ribbons are capped at earnings and understate what was actually returned.
Each value shows its share of revenue below it (common-size).
| Line Item | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | FY2020 | FY2019 | FY2018 | FY2017 | FY2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $58.94B 100.0% | $54.74B 100.0% | $56.14B 100.0% | $78.49B 100.0% | $45.83B 100.0% | $18.78B 100.0% | $36.67B 100.0% | $38.73B 100.0% | $32.58B 100.0% | $24.36B 100.0% |
| Cost of Revenue | $22.32B 37.9% | $20.01B 36.6% | $21.98B 39.1% | $33.97B 43.3% | $18.16B 39.6% | $8.08B 43.0% | $11.84B 32.3% | $14.29B 36.9% | $12.47B 38.3% | $9.99B 41.0% |
| Research & Development | $78.0M 0.1% | $81.0M 0.1% | $81.0M 0.1% | $71.0M 0.1% | $62.0M 0.1% | $75.0M 0.4% | $82.0M 0.2% | $78.0M 0.2% | $100.0M 0.3% | $116.0M 0.5% |
| Selling, General & Admin | $893.0M 1.5% | $1.16B 2.1% | $705.0M 1.3% | $623.0M 0.8% | $719.0M 1.6% | $430.0M 2.3% | $556.0M 1.5% | $401.0M 1.0% | $427.0M 1.3% | $473.0M 1.9% |
| Total Operating Expenses | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | $29.89B 122.7% |
| Interest Expense | $1.18B 2.0% | $941.0M 1.7% | $824.0M 1.5% | $791.0M 1.0% | $887.0M 1.9% | $788.0M 4.2% | $799.0M 2.2% | $838.0M 2.2% | $1.11B 3.4% | $1.28B 5.3% |
| Interest & Investment Income | $311.0M 0.5% | $402.0M 0.7% | $412.0M 0.7% | $195.0M 0.2% | $33.0M 0.1% | $100.0M 0.5% | $166.0M 0.5% | $97.0M 0.3% | $112.0M 0.3% | $57.0M 0.2% |
| Other Income (Expense), net | -$20.0M -0.0% | -$181.0M -0.3% | -$2.0M -0.0% | $47.0M 0.1% | -$102.0M -0.2% | -$13.0M -0.1% | $1.36B 3.7% | $173.0M 0.4% | $529.0M 1.6% | $255.0M 1.0% |
| Pretax Income | $12.66B 21.5% | $13.67B 25.0% | $16.29B 29.0% | $28.23B 36.0% | $12.71B 27.7% | -$3.14B -16.7% | $9.52B 26.0% | $9.97B 25.8% | -$2.62B -8.0% | -$5.53B -22.7% |
| Income Tax Expense | $4.67B 7.9% | $4.43B 8.1% | $5.33B 9.5% | $9.55B 12.2% | $4.63B 10.1% | -$485.0M -2.6% | $2.27B 6.2% | $3.67B 9.5% | -$1.82B -5.6% | -$1.97B -8.1% |
| Net Income | $7.99B 13.6% | $9.24B 16.9% | $10.96B 19.5% | $18.68B 23.8% | $8.08B 17.6% | -$2.70B -14.4% | $7.19B 19.6% | $6.26B 16.2% | -$855.0M -2.6% | -$3.62B -14.8% |
| Per Share | ||||||||||
| EPS (Basic) | $6.36 | $7.82 | $9.08 | $14.62 | $6.09 | -$2.51 | $6.43 | $5.36 | -$0.70 | -$2.91 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $6.35 | $7.81 | $9.06 | $14.57 | $6.07 | -$2.51 | $6.40 | — | -$0.70 | -$2.91 |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Basic) | 1.25B | 1.18B | 1.20B | 1.27B | 1.32B | 1.08B | 1.1M | 1.2M | 1.2M | 1.2M |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Diluted) | 1.25B | 1.18B | 1.21B | 1.28B | 1.33B | 1.08B | 1.1M | 1.2M | 1.2M | 1.2M |
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (annual, fiscal year). Quarterly flow items are derived from cumulative filings; balance-sheet figures are as-of each period end. Ratios and margins are computed, not reported.
Total return (dividends reinvested) vs the market, from quarter-end prices.
Above 0 = ahead of the S&P 500 since the window start; below 0 = behind. Rising means it's pulling ahead.
How far the stock fell below its prior peak. Deeper, longer drawdowns = a rougher ride to the same return.
Quarter-end, dividend-adjusted (total return). Beta & volatility from quarterly returns (annualized). Benchmark is the S&P 500 (SPY total return). Annual returns compound the quarters ending in each calendar year; the first and last years in a window may be partial. Past performance doesn't predict future results.
Last reported position per insider, carried forward. Steps can be a holding disclosed for the first time rather than a trade.
| Date | Insider | What it was | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Niblock Robert A Director | Grant | 270 | $138.97 | — |
| 2026-09-01 | Kinney Shannon Browning SVP & General Counsel | Grant | 24,080 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-09-01 | Johnson Kirk L. Executive Vice President | Grant | 37,930 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-09-01 | Olds Nicholas G Executive Vice President | Grant |
Every row is classified by what it MEANT, not by its SEC code. A code is not a meaning: code P (“purchase”) also covers dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plans, and code S (“sale”) also covers 10b5-1 plan sales scheduled months earlier and option exercises sold the same day.
Across 30 days of all filings, $5.08bn of insider selling contained $3.50bn of plan sales and $0.46bn of exercise-and-sell. Only 29% was discretionary. Reading an unclassified feed badly overstates how much insiders decided.
Buys and sales are counted separately and never netted. They are different decisions by different people; a company where one officer bought while another sold is not “neutral”.
The holding line carries each insider's last reported position forward, so it shows the total held rather than a sawtooth of whoever traded that day. It covers only insiders who filed in the window.
“Filed late” counts calendar days past the two-business-day deadline with five days' grace, so a Thursday or Friday trade crossing a weekend is never flagged. It describes the company's filing discipline, not the trade.
Insider activity is descriptive. Nothing here is investment advice.
| 22,758 |
| $0.00 |
| — |
| 2026-08-21 | Lundquist Andrew D Senior Vice President | Open-market sale | 9,487 | $135.15 | $1.3m |
| 2026-08-20 | Rose Kelly Brunetti SVP & General Counsel | Open-market sale | 15,000 | $134.51 | $2.0m |
| 2026-06-15 | Niblock Robert A Director | Grant | 322 | $112.18 | — |
| 2026-06-10 | Mulligan Sharmila Director | Open-market sale | 1,974 | $119.00 | $235k |
| 2026-06-01 | 3 co-filers Senior Vice President | Option exercise | 2,936 | — | — |
| 2026-06-01 | 3 co-filers Senior Vice President | Tax withholding | 1,325 | $116.46 | $154k |
| 2026-06-01 | 3 co-filers Senior Vice President | Option exercise | 2,936 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-04-15 | 2 co-filers Group filing | Option exercise | 2,230 | — | — |
| 2026-04-15 | 2 co-filers Group filing | Option exercise | 2,230 | — | — |
| 2026-04-15 | 2 co-filers Group filing | Option exercise | 2,230 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-04-15 | 2 co-filers Group filing | Option exercise | 2,230 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-03-31 | Lance Ryan Michael Chairman and CEO | Open-market saleindirect | 113,221 | $132.71 | $15.0m |
| 2026-03-31 | Olds Nicholas G Executive Vice President | Gift | 1,903 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-03-24 | Rose Kelly Brunetti SVP & General Counsel | Open-market sale | 7,700 | $130.03 | $1.0m |
| 2026-03-23 | Olds Nicholas G Executive Vice President | Open-market sale | 6,994 | $127.06 | $889k |
| 2026-03-20 | 3 co-filers Chairman and CEO | Option exercise | 506,800 | $49.76 | $25.2m |
| 2026-03-20 | 3 co-filers Chairman and CEO | Exercise & sell | 506,800 | $127.26 | $64.5m |
| 2026-03-20 | 3 co-filers Chairman and CEO | Option exercise | 506,800 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-03-16 | Niblock Robert A Director | Grant | 298 | $121.39 | — |
| 2026-03-13 | Hrap Heather G. Senior Vice President | Open-market sale | 2,654 | $119.68 | $318k |
| 2026-03-13 | 3 co-filers Senior Vice President | Option exercise | 34,500 | $49.76 | $1.7m |
| 2026-03-13 | 3 co-filers Senior Vice President | Exercise & sell | 34,500 | $119.68 | $4.1m |
| 2026-03-13 | 3 co-filers Senior Vice President | Option exercise | 34,500 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-03-12 | Olds Nicholas G Executive Vice President | Open-market sale | 14,522 | $119.36 | $1.7m |
| 2026-03-12 | Haynes Welsh Kontessa S VP & Controller | Open-market sale | 10,339 | $120.07 | $1.2m |
| 2026-03-11 | 3 co-filers Executive Vice President | Option exercise | 12,150 | $49.76 | $605k |
| 2026-03-11 | 3 co-filers Executive Vice President | Exercise & sell | 12,150 | $116.36 | $1.4m |
| 2026-03-11 | 3 co-filers Executive Vice President | Option exercise | 12,150 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-03-09 | Rose Kelly Brunetti SVP & General Counsel | Open-market sale | 8,500 | $118.04 | $1.0m |
| 2026-03-06 | Leach Timothy A Director | Open-market sale | 40,000 | $118.79 | $4.8m |
| 2026-03-04 | 5 co-filers Group filing | Option exercise | 7,390 | — | — |
| 2026-03-04 | 5 co-filers Group filing | Option exercise | 8,474 | — | — |
| 2026-03-04 | 5 co-filers Group filing | Tax withholding | 5,871 | $115.94 | $681k |
| 2026-03-04 | 5 co-filers Group filing | Option exercise | 7,390 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-03-04 | 5 co-filers Group filing | Option exercise | 8,474 | $0.00 | — |
| 2026-02-14 | 3 co-filers Executive Vice President & CFO | Option exercise | 4,009 | — | — |
EOD close · as of 2026-10-30
Where each multiple sits in its own 14-yr range · 100th pct blended
Dot = today · shaded = middle 50% · line = median. Lower percentile = cheaper vs its own 14-yr history.
Is the profit real, and how strong is the balance sheet?
FY2025 · every deduction from revenue to net income
DuPont — the three levers
ROE 12% against ROIC 12% — 0% of the return on equity comes from leverage and buybacks rather than from the operating business.
What the company owes vs. what it holds
This shows debt/cash structure and net leverage. The year-by-year maturity schedule is on the Debt & Leverage tab.
Latest year: profit growth vs revenue growth
Operating leverage needs meaningful revenue change.
Each line as % of revenue — the trend in color
| % of revenue | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of Revenue | 36.9 | 32.3 | 43.0 | 39.6 | 43.3 | 39.1 | 36.6 | 37.9 |
| R&D | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| SG&A | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| Income Tax | 9.5 | 6.2 | -2.6 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 9.5 | 8.1 | 7.9 |
| Net Income | 16.2 | 19.6 | -14.4 | 17.6 | 23.8 | 19.5 | 16.9 | 13.6 |
Green = margin-favorable vs the row's own range · red = unfavorable.
The metrics that matter, over time
A 30-second read on COP: price, valuation and headline fundamentals from SEC filings. The four questions at the top of the page are where the judgements live.
No positive operating income in the last three years, so there is no return on capital to compare against its cost.
| Fiscal year | Gross margin | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2016 | 59.0% | not reported | -14.8% |
| FY2017 | 61.7% | not reported | -2.6% |
| FY2018 | 63.1% | not reported | 16.2% |
| FY2019 | 67.7% | not reported | 19.6% |
| FY2020 | 57.0% | not reported | -14.4% |
| FY2021 | 60.4% | not reported | 17.6% |
| FY2022 | 56.7% | not reported | 23.8% |
| FY2023 | 60.9% | not reported | 19.5% |
| FY2024 | 63.4% | not reported | 16.9% |
| FY2025 | 62.1% | not reported | 13.6% |
Return on equity (12%) and return on invested capital (12%) are within a couple of points in FY2025, so the headline return is the operating return — there is no meaningful leverage effect to strip out.
No material counter-signal in the checked set: ROIC vs WACC spread, 5-year spread history, gross margin trend, operating margin trend, net margin against 3 years ago, revenue growth, ROIC ex-goodwill gap.
Missing from our data, so excluded from this answer: positive EBIT.
Converts 1.78x of reported profit into cash — adequate, without much margin.
Capex has been below depreciation for 3 consecutive years (0.42x on average over the last 5). Spending less than the asset base is consuming flatters free cash flow now and defers the cost — though depreciation also covers amortisation of acquired intangibles, which capex is not meant to replace.
Debt is present but there is no positive EBITDA or no reported interest expense, so coverage cannot be measured.
Ladder as of 2025-12-31 (10-K); cash from the 2025-12-31 balance sheet; FCF from FY2025.
Balance sheet at 2025-12-31. Undrawn revolving credit is not shown: the tag is collected but not yet mapped through to the API.
No material counter-signal in the checked set: net debt / EBITDA, interest coverage, stressed coverage, maturity schedule vs cash and one year of FCF, liquidity ratios.
Missing from our data, so excluded from this answer: ebitda.
At $154.03, free cash flow must compound -7.04%/yr for 10 years. It has done 28.16%/yr over 6 years, though across a reporting-basis change.
| Fiscal year | FCF growth | Price requires |
|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | −98.1% | −7.0% |
| FY2021 | 13316.1% | −7.0% |
| FY2022 | 55.5% | −7.0% |
| FY2023 | 10.0% | −7.0% |
| FY2024 | 0.8% | −7.0% |
| FY2025 | −1.6% | −7.0% |
The percentile ranks the FISCAL-YEAR point, because the distribution behind each strip is built from fiscal-year closes — ranking a TTM figure inside it would compare two different bases. TTM basis: TTM.
The achieved growth rate spans a reporting-basis change in FY2020, so part of it measures the restatement rather than the business.
| Step | Amount | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | $7.99B | $7.99B |
| Share-based comp | $336M | $8.32B |
| Other non-cash & working capital | $11.47B | $19.80B |
| Operating cash flow | $19.80B | $19.80B |
| Capex | $0 | $19.80B |
| Free cash flow | $19.80B | $19.80B |
| FCF after SBC | $19.46B | $19.46B |
| Fiscal year | Revenue growth | Receivables growth | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | -48.8% | -23.0% | 25.8 points |
| FY2021 | 144.0% | 188.3% | 44.4 points |
| FY2022 | 71.3% | -0.5% | -71.8 points |
| FY2023 | -28.5% | -15.8% | 12.7 points |
| FY2024 | -2.5% | 22.3% | 24.8 points |
| FY2025 | 7.7% | -18.2% | -25.9 points |
| Fiscal year | DSO | DIO | DPO | Cash conversion cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | 23.6 days | 31.6 days | 97.9 days | -42.7 days |
| FY2020 | 35.5 days | 45.3 days | 120.6 days | -39.8 days |
| FY2021 | 42 days | 24.3 days | 100.5 days | -34.3 days |
| FY2022 | 24.4 days | 13.1 days | 65.7 days | -28.2 days |
| FY2023 | 28.7 days | 23.2 days | not reported | not reported |
| FY2024 | 36 days | 33 days | 110.2 days | -41.3 days |
| FY2025 | 27.3 days | 30.6 days | 101.7 days | -43.7 days |
| Fiscal year | Accruals / assets |
|---|---|
| FY2019 | -5.5 percent |
| FY2020 | -12.0 percent |
| FY2021 | -9.8 percent |
| FY2022 | -10.3 percent |
| FY2023 | -9.4 percent |
| FY2024 | -8.9 percent |
| FY2025 | -9.7 percent |
Below the line, the asset base is being consumed faster than it is replaced.
Below the line for 3 consecutive years to the latest.
Depreciation here includes amortisation of acquired intangibles — goodwill written down over time, customer lists, acquired technology. Capex does not replace those and is not meant to, so an acquisitive or asset-light company sits below 1.0 permanently and correctly. The signal is cleanest for capital-intensive businesses, where the two measure the same physical base. For that reason this informs the earnings-quality verdict but never caps it.
SBC is added back inside operating cash flow, so reported free cash flow treats shares issued to employees as free. Percent of revenue says how expensive the payroll is; percent of operating cash flow says how much of the cash exists only because the charge was added back. The buyback offset is buybacks over SBC — below 1.0 the repurchase does not cover the shares issued.
Figures are the latest fiscal year (FY2025) from the company's own filings, not a trailing-twelve-month window — Q2 reads fiscal years throughout so the cash-conversion ratios and these share one basis. A blank is a line the filer did not report; it is never read as zero.