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Held by 1,927 of 6,047 reporting institutions (100th percentile) — extremely crowded.
Data as of Q2 2026
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Total shares institutions bought (green) vs sold (red) each quarter across all holders.
Inferred from quarter-over-quarter change in each fund's 13F position (new stakes count as buys, exits as sells). Not tick-level trades.
Ranked against 3 sector peers with collected financials. Valuation from latest close × latest fiscal-year fundamentals; 13F conviction as of 2026-06-30.
Percentile is “goodness” within the peer set (100 = best). For valuation and leverage that means cheaper / less-levered ranks higher.
| Company | Mkt cap ▼ | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/S | Rev gr | Gross | Net | ROE | ROIC | Net D/EBITDA | 13F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNP | $165.3B | 23.2× | 16.0× | 6.7× | 1.1% | — | 29.1% | 38.7% | 13.8% | 2.6× | 2,798 |
| CSX | $87.9B | 30.8× | 17.2× | 6.2× | -3.1% | — | 20.5% | 22.0% | 9.0% | 3.0× | 1,927 |
| NSC | $71.3B | 24.9× | 15.1× | 5.8× | 0.5% | — | 23.6% | 18.5% | 8.8% | 2.7× | 1,803 |
| FIP | $317M | — | 28.7× | 0.6× | 51.6% | — | -30.3% | -713% | -4.0% | — | 173 |
Peers = companies sharing CSX's sector (Railroads, Line-Haul Operating) with collected SEC financials. Multiples use the most recent end-of-day close and latest fiscal-year fundamentals (trailing, not forward). Missing cells mean the peer never reported that line item, has no collected price, or has a non-positive denominator. Not investment advice.
Solve the discounted cash flow backwards, then stress-test the assumptions.
Average free cash flow across the last 3 positive fiscal years (FY2023, FY2024, FY2025). Smooths the cycle. Stock compensation is NOT charged — it is added back inside operating cash flow.
To be worth $47.43 today, the market must believe free cash flow compounds 14.0%/yr for a decade (off $2.56B on the 3-yr avg basis).
On the basis ($2.51B) the requirement is 14.3%/yr. Shares issued to employees are added back in operating cash flow, so this basis treats them as free.
The market's 14.0% is more optimistic than its 9-yr track record.
Default is 8.5% — this company's computed cost of capital (computed WACC), the same rate the Analysis tab discounts at.
2-stage DCF · 1.85B shares (market data) · net debt $18.87B
mean 20.9% · volatility σ 55% · implied rate exceeded in 3/9 yrs
Central path = implied 14.0%/yr growth; shaded band = ±1σ (55%) of this company's historical FCF volatility, widening with time. The wider the band, the less certain the growth.
Reverse DCF: rather than guessing a fair value, we solve for the growth the current price implies, then you stress-test the assumptions. Enterprise value of the FCF stream, less net debt, ÷ shares. Educational — not a recommendation.
Top 40 institutional holders — bubble size is position value, color is the move since last quarter. Hover any holder for detail.
Drag any bubble to rearrange · size = dollar value of the position
What the company returns to shareholders — and whether it's covered by cash.
The dividend is comfortably covered — only 57% of free cash flow, leaving room to grow it and fund buybacks. Last year: $972.0M dividends + $1.40B buybacks = $2.37B returned on $1.71B FCF.
4 consecutive years of dividend increases · -3%/yr.
Yields use the latest fiscal-year dividends/buybacks over current market cap. Dividends and buybacks from the SEC cash-flow statement; payout coverage vs net income and free cash flow. Educational — not a recommendation.
How management deployed cash over 10 years — and what it earned on reinvestment.
A cash-return story — far more went to shareholders than back into the business (mature, low-reinvestment).
Modest payoff on reinvested capital. Current ROIC on all capital: 9%. Rough measure (includes maintenance capex).
Cash uses aggregated from the SEC cash-flow statement over 10 fiscal years. "Return on reinvestment" is a rough proxy — operating-income change ÷ cumulative CapEx + M&A — and includes maintenance capex. Educational — not a recommendation.
How much the company owes, how it's trended, and how comfortably it's serviced.
Cash of $958.0M covers the $245.0M due within a year 3.9× over. Scheduled principal only (excludes interest & revolver draws). As of 2019-12-31 (10-K).
Green ≤ 1.5× · amber ≤ 3× · red > 3× (leverage relative to cash earnings).
Coverage is adequate but not comfortable. Effective rate ~4.5% on $18.87B of debt.
Cash vs short-term debt unavailable.
Short-term / long-term split not separately reported.
Debt, cash, interest and equity from the SEC balance sheet & income statement. Effective rate = interest ÷ average debt. Maturity ladder from the SEC long-term-debt repayment schedule. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-10-05
How a revenue dollar becomes profit — FY2025
Dividends and buybacks are cash paid out, shown here against the same year's profit for scale — not funded from it.
Each value shows its share of revenue below it (common-size).
| Line Item | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | FY2020 | FY2019 | FY2018 | FY2017 | FY2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.09B 100.0% | $14.54B 100.0% | $14.66B 100.0% | $14.85B 100.0% | $12.52B 100.0% | $10.58B 100.0% | $11.94B 100.0% | $12.25B 100.0% | $11.41B 100.0% | $11.07B 100.0% |
| Total Operating Expenses | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | $7.38B 60.3% | $7.69B 67.4% | $7.66B 69.2% |
| Operating Income | $4.52B 32.1% | $5.25B 36.1% | $5.50B 37.5% | $5.95B 40.1% | $5.59B 44.7% | $4.36B 41.2% | $4.96B 41.6% | $4.87B 39.7% | $3.72B 32.6% | $3.41B 30.8% |
| Interest Expense | $844.0M 6.0% | $832.0M 5.7% | $809.0M 5.5% | $742.0M 5.0% | — | — | — | — | $546.0M 4.8% | $579.0M 5.2% |
| Other Income (Expense), net | $92.0M 0.7% | $142.0M 1.0% | $139.0M 0.9% | $133.0M 0.9% | $79.0M 0.6% | $19.0M 0.2% | $88.0M 0.7% | $74.0M 0.6% | $53.0M 0.5% | $22.0M 0.2% |
| Pretax Income | $3.77B 26.7% | $4.55B 31.3% | $4.83B 32.9% | $5.34B 36.0% | $4.95B 39.5% | $3.63B 34.3% | $4.32B 36.2% | $4.30B 35.1% | $3.14B 27.5% | $2.74B 24.8% |
| Income Tax Expense | $880.0M 6.2% | $1.08B 7.5% | $1.16B 7.9% | $1.23B 8.3% | $1.17B 9.3% | $862.0M 8.1% | $985.0M 8.3% | $995.0M 8.1% | -$2.33B -20.4% | $1.03B 9.3% |
| Net Income | $2.89B 20.5% | $3.47B 23.9% | $3.67B 25.0% | $4.11B 27.7% | $3.78B 30.2% | $2.77B 26.1% | $3.33B 27.9% | $3.31B 27.0% | $5.47B 48.0% | $1.71B 15.5% |
| Per Share | ||||||||||
| EPS (Basic) | $1.54 | $1.79 | $1.83 | $1.93 | $1.68 | $1.20 | $1.39 | $3.86 | $6.01 | $1.81 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.54 | $1.79 | $1.82 | $1.92 | $1.68 | $1.20 | $1.39 | $3.84 | $5.99 | $1.81 |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Basic) | 1.87B | 1.94B | 2.01B | 2.14B | 2.25B | 2.30B | 2.39B | 857.0M | 911.0M | 947.0M |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Diluted) | 1.87B | 1.94B | 2.01B | 2.14B | 2.25B | 2.31B | 2.40B | 861.0M | 914.0M | 948.0M |
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (annual, fiscal year). Quarterly flow items are derived from cumulative filings; balance-sheet figures are as-of each period end. Ratios and margins are computed, not reported.
Total return (dividends reinvested) vs the market, from quarter-end prices.
Above 0 = ahead of the S&P 500 since the window start; below 0 = behind. Rising means it's pulling ahead.
How far the stock fell below its prior peak. Deeper, longer drawdowns = a rougher ride to the same return.
Quarter-end, dividend-adjusted (total return). Beta & volatility from quarterly returns (annualized). Benchmark is the S&P 500 (SPY total return). Annual returns compound the quarters ending in each calendar year; the first and last years in a window may be partial. Past performance doesn't predict future results.
EOD close · as of 2026-10-05
Where each multiple sits in its own 9-yr range · 100th pct blended
Dot = today · shaded = middle 50% · line = median. Lower percentile = cheaper vs its own 9-yr history.
Is the profit real, and how strong is the balance sheet?
FY2025 · every deduction from revenue to net income
DuPont — the three levers
ROE 22% against ROIC 9% — 13% of the return on equity comes from leverage and buybacks rather than from the operating business.
What the company owes vs. what it holds
This shows debt/cash structure and net leverage. The year-by-year maturity schedule is on the Debt & Leverage tab.
Latest year: profit growth vs revenue growth
High operating leverage: profit moved 4.5× as fast as sales — great in an upturn, painful in a downturn.
Each line as % of revenue — the trend in color
| % of revenue | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Income | 39.7 | 41.6 | 41.2 | 44.7 | 40.1 | 37.5 | 36.1 | 32.1 |
| Income Tax | 8.1 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 6.2 |
| Net Income | 27.0 | 27.9 | 26.1 | 30.2 | 27.7 | 25.0 | 23.9 | 20.5 |
Green = margin-favorable vs the row's own range · red = unfavorable.
The metrics that matter, over time
A 30-second read on CSX: price, valuation and headline fundamentals from SEC filings. The four questions at the top of the page are where the judgements live.
The spread has compressed 3 years running.
| Period | ROIC | Cost of capital | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | 13.6% | 8.5% (today's — no rate published for this year) | 5.1pts |
| FY2020 | 12.1% | 8.5% (today's — no rate published for this year) | 3.7pts |
| FY2021 | 15.0% | 8.5% (today's — no rate published for this year) | 6.6pts |
| FY2022 | 15.4% | 7.7% | 7.8pts |
| FY2023 | 13.5% | 7.7% | 5.8pts |
| FY2024 | 12.7% | 8.0% | 4.6pts |
| FY2025 | 10.6% | 7.7% | 2.8pts |
| Now | 9.0% | 8.5% | 0.5pts |
| Fiscal year | Gross margin | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2016 | not reported | 30.8% | 15.5% |
| FY2017 | not reported | 32.6% | 48.0% |
| FY2018 | not reported | 39.7% | 27.0% |
| FY2019 | not reported | 41.6% | 27.9% |
| FY2020 | not reported | 41.2% | 26.1% |
| FY2021 | not reported | 44.7% | 30.2% |
| FY2022 | not reported | 40.1% | 27.7% |
| FY2023 | not reported | 37.5% | 25.0% |
| FY2024 | not reported | 36.1% | 23.9% |
| FY2025 | not reported | 32.1% | 20.5% |
Leverage and buybacks account for 13 points of the 22% return on equity in FY2025. The business earns 9% on the capital it employs; the rest is balance sheet.
ROE is on average equity; ROIC is NOPAT over average invested capital (debt plus equity less excess cash). The gap is not a single adjustment.
$80M of goodwill — 0% of invested capital. The gap is what was paid above the fair value of what was bought; it is real capital shareholders provided, so neither bar is the whole answer.
Margins have compressed 4 years running even as the spread stayed positive.
Converts 0.79x of reported profit into cash — adequate, without much margin.
The cash conversion cycle could not be computed — receivables, inventory or cost of revenue is not reported — so the earliest accrual warning is not part of this verdict.
Covers interest 3.7x under stress — adequate, without much room.
| EBITDA decline | Interest coverage |
|---|---|
| 0% | 5.36x |
| 5% | 5.09x |
| 10% | 4.82x |
| 15% | 4.55x |
| 20% | 4.29x |
| 25% | 4.02x |
| 30% | 3.75x |
| 35% | 3.48x |
| 40% | 3.21x |
| 45% | 2.95x |
| 50% | 2.68x |
| 55% | 2.41x |
| 60% | 2.14x |
This schedule comes from a filing dated 2019-12-31, 2470 days old. Maturities are shown relative to that date, not to today.
Ladder as of 2019-12-31 (10-K); cash from the 2019-12-31 balance sheet; FCF from FY2019.
Balance sheet at 2019-12-31. Undrawn revolving credit is not shown: the tag is collected but not yet mapped through to the API.
Coverage is comfortable at 5.4x today but falls to 3.7x after a 30% EBITDA decline — the cushion is earnings, not liquidity.
At $47.43, free cash flow must compound 14.11%/yr for 10 years. It has done -9.88%/yr over 6 years.
| Fiscal year | FCF growth | Price requires |
|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | −17.4% | 14.1% |
| FY2021 | 25.4% | 14.1% |
| FY2022 | 3.2% | 14.1% |
| FY2023 | −4.6% | 14.1% |
| FY2024 | −16.5% | 14.1% |
| FY2025 | −37.0% | 14.1% |
The implied rate has been matched or beaten in 1 of the last 6 years.
| Step | Amount | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | $2.89B | $2.89B |
| Share-based comp | $54M | $2.94B |
| Other non-cash & working capital | $1.67B | $4.61B |
| Operating cash flow | $4.61B | $4.61B |
| Capex | −$2.90B | $1.71B |
| Free cash flow | $1.71B | $1.71B |
| FCF after SBC | $1.66B | $1.66B |
| Fiscal year | Revenue growth | Receivables growth | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | -11.3% | -7.5% | 3.8 points |
| FY2021 | 18.3% | 25.9% | 7.6 points |
| FY2022 | 18.6% | 14.4% | -4.3 points |
| FY2023 | -1.3% | 6.1% | 7.4 points |
| FY2024 | -0.8% | -4.8% | -4.0 points |
| FY2025 | -3.1% | -2.1% | 1.0 points |
| Fiscal year | DSO | DIO | DPO | Cash conversion cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | 30.1 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2020 | 31.5 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2021 | 33.5 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2022 | 32.3 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2023 | 34.7 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2024 | 33.3 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2025 | 33.6 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| Fiscal year | Accruals / assets |
|---|---|
| FY2019 | -4.0 percent |
| FY2020 | -3.8 percent |
| FY2021 | -3.3 percent |
| FY2022 | -3.4 percent |
| FY2023 | -4.4 percent |
| FY2024 | -4.2 percent |
| FY2025 | -4.0 percent |
SBC is added back inside operating cash flow, so reported free cash flow treats shares issued to employees as free. Percent of revenue says how expensive the payroll is; percent of operating cash flow says how much of the cash exists only because the charge was added back. The buyback offset is buybacks over SBC — below 1.0 the repurchase does not cover the shares issued.
Figures are the latest fiscal year (FY2025) from the company's own filings, not a trailing-twelve-month window — Q2 reads fiscal years throughout so the cash-conversion ratios and these share one basis. A blank is a line the filer did not report; it is never read as zero.