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Data as of Q3 2026
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Total shares institutions bought (green) vs sold (red) each quarter across all holders.
Inferred from quarter-over-quarter change in each fund's 13F position (new stakes count as buys, exits as sells). Not tick-level trades.
Top 3 institutional holders — bubble size is position value, color is the move since last quarter. Hover any holder for detail.
Drag any bubble to rearrange · size = dollar value of the position
Solve the discounted cash flow backwards, then stress-test the assumptions.
Average free cash flow across the last 3 positive fiscal years (FY2023, FY2024, FY2025). Smooths the cycle. Stock compensation is NOT charged — it is added back inside operating cash flow.
To be worth $30.92 today, the market must believe free cash flow compounds 8.2%/yr for a decade (off $260.1M on the 3-yr avg basis).
On the basis ($204.9M) the requirement is 11.2%/yr. Shares issued to employees are added back in operating cash flow, so this basis treats them as free.
The market's 8.2% is more conservative than its 2-yr track record.
Default is 7.4% — this company's computed cost of capital (computed WACC), the same rate the Analysis tab discounts at.
2-stage DCF · 0.29B shares (market data) · net debt -$327.4M
mean 617.9% · volatility σ 750% · implied rate exceeded in 2/2 yrs
Central path = implied 8.2%/yr growth; shaded band = ±1σ (750%) of this company's historical FCF volatility, widening with time. The wider the band, the less certain the growth.
Reverse DCF: rather than guessing a fair value, we solve for the growth the current price implies, then you stress-test the assumptions. Enterprise value of the FCF stream, less net debt, ÷ shares. Educational — not a recommendation.
What the company returns to shareholders — and whether it's covered by cash.
No dividend to cover. Last year: $0 dividends + $0 buybacks = $0 returned on $494.9M FCF.
Yields use the latest fiscal-year dividends/buybacks over current market cap. Dividends and buybacks from the SEC cash-flow statement; payout coverage vs net income and free cash flow. Educational — not a recommendation.
How management deployed cash over 7 years — and what it earned on reinvestment.
A reinvestment story — most cash went back into growth rather than to shareholders.
Modest payoff on reinvested capital. Current ROIC on all capital: 23%. Rough measure (includes maintenance capex).
Cash uses aggregated from the SEC cash-flow statement over 7 fiscal years. "Return on reinvestment" is a rough proxy — operating-income change ÷ cumulative CapEx + M&A — and includes maintenance capex. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-10-30
How a revenue dollar becomes profit — FY2025
Dividends and buybacks are cash paid out, shown here against the same year's profit for scale — not funded from it.
Each value shows its share of revenue below it (common-size).
| Line Item | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | FY2020 | FY2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.03B 100.0% | $34.47B 100.0% | $24.90B 100.0% | $13.29B 100.0% | $7.97B 100.0% | $4.03B 100.0% | $3.02B 100.0% |
| Selling, General & Admin | $436.3M 6.2% | $2.42B 7.0% | $1.83B 7.3% | $1.46B 11.0% | $1.27B 15.9% | $981.6M 24.3% | $1.07B 35.4% |
| Total Operating Expenses | $6.31B 89.7% | $30.90B 89.6% | $21.88B 87.9% | $12.14B 91.3% | $8.50B 106.8% | $6.62B 164.1% | $6.24B 206.2% |
| Operating Income | $724.1M 10.3% | $3.57B 10.4% | $3.02B 12.1% | $1.16B 8.7% | -$539.1M -6.8% | -$2.59B -64.1% | -$3.21B -106.2% |
| Interest Expense | $18K 0.0% | $3.9M 0.0% | — | $23.5M 0.2% | $35.5M 0.4% | $116.5M 2.9% | $31.6M 1.0% |
| Interest & Investment Income | — | — | — | $12.3M 0.1% | $102.2M 1.3% | $135.7M 3.4% | $79.4M 2.6% |
| Other Income (Expense), net | $11.5M 0.2% | $84.2M 0.2% | $62.3M 0.3% | $60.7M 0.5% | -$16.5M -0.2% | -$58.6M -1.5% | -$6.3M -0.2% |
| Pretax Income | $753.6M 10.7% | $3.73B 10.8% | $3.10B 12.5% | $1.13B 8.5% | $514.8M 6.5% | -$6.24B -154.7% | -$3.16B -104.4% |
| Income Tax Expense | $239.8M 3.4% | $770.6M 2.2% | $258.1M 1.0% | $638.5M 4.8% | -$63.9M -0.8% | -$637.8M -15.8% | $1.4M 0.0% |
| Net Income | $513.9M 7.3% | $2.96B 8.6% | $2.84B 11.4% | $488.2M 3.7% | $578.7M 7.3% | -$5.60B -138.9% | -$3.16B -104.5% |
| Per Share | |||||||
| EPS (Basic) | $0.20 | $1.16 | $1.12 | $0.20 | $0.29 | -$2.76 | -$2.31 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.20 | $1.16 | $1.12 | $0.19 | $0.27 | -$2.76 | -$2.31 |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Basic) | 2.57B | 2.55B | 2.53B | 2.47B | 2.05B | 2.02B | 1.61B |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Diluted) | 2.57B | 2.55B | 2.53B | 2.52B | 2.14B | 2.02B | 1.61B |
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (annual, fiscal year). Quarterly flow items are derived from cumulative filings; balance-sheet figures are as-of each period end. Ratios and margins are computed, not reported.
How much the company owes, how it's trended, and how comfortably it's serviced.
Cash of $597.7M covers all $333.6M of scheduled principal — no refinancing pressure. Scheduled principal only (excludes interest & revolver draws). As of 2024-12-31 (20-F).
Insufficient EBITDA/debt history.
Green ≤ 1.5× · amber ≤ 3× · red > 3× (leverage relative to cash earnings).
Interest is easily covered by operating profit.
Cash vs short-term debt unavailable.
Short-term / long-term split not separately reported.
Debt, cash, interest and equity from the SEC balance sheet & income statement. Effective rate = interest ÷ average debt. Maturity ladder from the SEC long-term-debt repayment schedule. Educational — not a recommendation.
Ranked against 17 sector peers with collected financials. Valuation from latest close × latest fiscal-year fundamentals; 13F conviction as of 2026-09-30.
Percentile is “goodness” within the peer set (100 = best). For valuation and leverage that means cheaper / less-levered ranks higher.
| Company | Mkt cap ▼ | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/S | Rev gr | Gross | Net | ROE | ROIC | Net D/EBITDA | 13F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMG | $39.7B | 27.4× | 17.1× | 3.3× | 5.4% | — | 12.9% | 54.3% | 54.3% | -0.1× | 337 |
| QSR | $25.5B | 31.1× | 16.1× | 2.7× | 12.2% | — | 11.4% | 29.6% | 6.4% | 5.5× | 136 |
| DRI | $24.9B | 21.2× | 12.6× | 1.9× | 9.4% | 20.3% | 9.1% | 54.7% | 26.6% | 1.0× | 315 |
| YUMC | $15.2B | 18.0× | 8.5× | 1.3× | 4.4% | — | 7.9% | 17.3% | 17.2% | -0.3× | 149 |
| ARMK | $14.7B | 45.9× | 15.4× | 0.8× | 6.4% | — | 1.8% | 10.4% | 3.8% | 3.8× | 120 |
| TXRH | $12.0B | 30.0× | 17.4× | 2.0× | 9.4% | — | 7.0% | 28.4% | 28.4% | -0.2× | 132 |
| EAT | $9.2B | 20.2× | 10.9× | 1.6× | 7.9% | — | 8.4% | 110% | 110% | -0.1× | 110 |
| LKNCY | $9.0B | 157.6× | 9.2× | 1.3× | 48.9% | — | 7.3% | 23.0% | 23.0% | -0.3× | 3 |
| CAVA | $6.9B | 109.7× | 51.4× | 5.9× | 22.4% | — | 5.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | -2.2× | 98 |
| BROS | $6.1B | 68.7× | 21.7× | 3.7× | 27.9% | 25.9% | 4.9% | 11.7% | 9.1% | -0.3× | 122 |
| CAKE | $5.6B | 37.0× | 20.4× | 1.5× | 4.7% | — | 4.0% | 34.0% | 13.9% | 1.4× | 76 |
| WING | $3.9B | 23.4× | 24.2× | 5.6× | 11.4% | — | 25.0% | -23.7% | 36.9% | 5.0× | 73 |
| SHAK | $2.8B | 64.7× | 16.2× | 2.0× | 15.4% | — | 3.2% | 8.7% | 5.9% | -0.7× | 69 |
| CHA | $2.3B | 13.7× | 5.6× | 1.2× | — | — | 9.1% | 16.0% | 16.0% | -5.1× | 2 |
| CBRL | $1.6B | 51.8× | 17.4× | 0.5× | -4.7% | 69.1% | 1.0% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 2.7× | 48 |
| ARCO | $1.5B | 6.8× | 4.2× | 0.3× | 4.7% | 98.1% | 4.5% | 27.5% | 11.1% | 1.4× | 25 |
| WEN | $1.4B | 8.4× | 7.7× | 0.6× | -3.1% | 63.6% | 7.6% | 141% | 5.7% | 5.0× | 90 |
| BJRI | $1.3B | 29.3× | 11.4× | 1.0× | 3.1% | 74.7% | 3.5% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 0.5× | 31 |
Peers = companies sharing LKNCY's sector (Retail-Eating & Drinking Places) with collected SEC financials. Multiples use the most recent end-of-day close and latest fiscal-year fundamentals (trailing, not forward). Missing cells mean the peer never reported that line item, has no collected price, or has a non-positive denominator. Not investment advice.
Total return (dividends reinvested) vs the market, from quarter-end prices.
Above 0 = ahead of the S&P 500 since the window start; below 0 = behind. Rising means it's pulling ahead.
How far the stock fell below its prior peak. Deeper, longer drawdowns = a rougher ride to the same return.
Quarter-end, dividend-adjusted (total return). Beta & volatility from quarterly returns (annualized). Benchmark is the S&P 500 (SPY total return). Annual returns compound the quarters ending in each calendar year; the first and last years in a window may be partial. Past performance doesn't predict future results.
Last reported position per insider, carried forward. Steps can be a holding disclosed for the first time rather than a trade.
| Date | Insider | What it was | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | 2 co-filers Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sale | 49,601 | $36.20 | $1.8m |
| 2026-08-05 | 2 co-filers Chief Executive Officer | Open-market sale | 247,070 | $36.50 | $9.0m |
| 2026-08-04 | 3 co-filers Senior Vice President | Open-market sale | 27,982 | $37.10 | $1.0m |
| 2026-08-04 | 3 co-filers Senior Vice President | Open-market sale | 62,500 | $37.10 | $2.3m |
| 2026-08-04 |
Every row is classified by what it MEANT, not by its SEC code. A code is not a meaning: code P (“purchase”) also covers dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plans, and code S (“sale”) also covers 10b5-1 plan sales scheduled months earlier and option exercises sold the same day.
Across 30 days of all filings, $5.08bn of insider selling contained $3.50bn of plan sales and $0.46bn of exercise-and-sell. Only 29% was discretionary. Reading an unclassified feed badly overstates how much insiders decided.
Buys and sales are counted separately and never netted. They are different decisions by different people; a company where one officer bought while another sold is not “neutral”.
The holding line carries each insider's last reported position forward, so it shows the total held rather than a sawtooth of whoever traded that day. It covers only insiders who filed in the window.
“Filed late” counts calendar days past the two-business-day deadline with five days' grace, so a Thursday or Friday trade crossing a weekend is never flagged. It describes the company's filing discipline, not the trade.
Insider activity is descriptive. Nothing here is investment advice.
EOD close · as of 2026-10-30
The spread has compressed 3 years running.
| Fiscal year | Gross margin | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | not reported | -106.2% | -104.5% |
| FY2020 | not reported | -64.1% | -138.9% |
| FY2021 | not reported | -6.8% | 8.6% |
| FY2022 | not reported | 8.7% | 3.7% |
| FY2023 | not reported | 12.1% | 11.4% |
| FY2024 | not reported | 10.3% | 8.5% |
| FY2025 | not reported | 10.3% | 7.3% |
The spread has been narrowing over the last three years.
3 co-filers Senior Vice President |
| Open-market sale |
| 59,518 |
| $37.00 |
| $2.2m |
| 2026-06-09 | An Jing Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sale | 1,760 | $30.72 | $54k |
| 2026-06-02 | An Jing Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sale | 6,756 | $32.45 | $219k |
| 2026-05-14 | An Jing Chief Financial Officer | Open-market sale | 200 | $33.23 | $7k |
Where each multiple sits in its own 7-yr range · 4th pct blended
Dot = today · shaded = middle 50% · line = median. Lower percentile = cheaper vs its own 7-yr history.
Is the profit real, and how strong is the balance sheet?
FY2025 · every deduction from revenue to net income
DuPont — the three levers
ROE 23% against ROIC 23% — 0% of the return on equity comes from leverage and buybacks rather than from the operating business.
Equity is the year-end figure. On average equity over the two year-ends, ROE is 27.0% — the two diverge when buybacks or issuance move equity during the year.
What the company owes vs. what it holds
This shows debt/cash structure and net leverage. The year-by-year maturity schedule is on the Debt & Leverage tab.
Latest year: profit growth vs revenue growth
Low operating leverage — profit tracks sales closely (stable, less cyclical).
Each line as % of revenue — the trend in color
| % of revenue | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SG&A | 35.4 | 24.3 | 15.9 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 6.2 |
| Operating Income | -106.2 | -64.1 | -6.8 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 10.4 | 10.3 |
| Income Tax | 0.0 | -15.8 | -0.8 | 4.8 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 3.4 |
| Net Income | -104.5 | -138.9 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 7.3 |
Green = margin-favorable vs the row's own range · red = unfavorable.
The metrics that matter, over time
A 30-second read on LKNCY: price, valuation and headline fundamentals from SEC filings. The four questions at the top of the page are where the judgements live.
Return on equity (23%) and return on invested capital (23%) are within a couple of points in FY2025, so the headline return is the operating return — there is no meaningful leverage effect to strip out.
| Period | ROIC | Cost of capital | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | -305.4% | 7.4% (today's — no rate published for this year) | -312.8pts |
| FY2022 | 25.0% | 6.4% | 18.6pts |
| FY2023 | 22.6% | 7.4% (today's — no rate published for this year) | 15.2pts |
| FY2024 | 20.8% | 8.1% | 12.8pts |
| FY2025 | 18.7% | 6.7% | 12.1pts |
| Now | 23.0% | 7.4% | 15.6pts |
Cash conversion of 0.01x sits below the level that would make the earnings clearly cash-backed.
| Step | Amount | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | $514M | $514M |
| Share-based comp | $82M | $596M |
| Other non-cash & working capital | $274M | $869M |
| Operating cash flow | $869M | $869M |
| Capex | −$374M | $495M |
| Free cash flow | $495M | $495M |
| FCF after SBC | $413M | $413M |
| Fiscal year | Revenue growth | Receivables growth | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | 42.3% | -18.7% | -60.9 points |
| FY2021 | 102.2% | 127.4% | 25.2 points |
| FY2022 | 54.2% | 40.7% | -13.5 points |
| FY2023 | 82.0% | 33.3% | -48.7 points |
| FY2024 | 34.7% | 34.2% | -0.5 points |
| FY2025 | 48.9% | 46.4% | -2.6 points |
| Fiscal year | DSO | DIO | DPO | Cash conversion cycle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | 2.8 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2020 | 1.6 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2021 | 1.8 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2022 | 1.6 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2023 | 1.2 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2024 | 1.2 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| FY2025 | 1.2 days | not reported | not reported | not reported |
| Fiscal year | Accruals / assets |
|---|---|
| FY2019 | -10.2 percent |
| FY2020 | -34.6 percent |
| FY2021 | 4.6 percent |
| FY2022 | 4.5 percent |
| FY2023 | -0.3 percent |
| FY2024 | -5.6 percent |
| FY2025 | -8.2 percent |
Below the line, the asset base is being consumed faster than it is replaced.
Depreciation here includes amortisation of acquired intangibles — goodwill written down over time, customer lists, acquired technology. Capex does not replace those and is not meant to, so an acquisitive or asset-light company sits below 1.0 permanently and correctly. The signal is cleanest for capital-intensive businesses, where the two measure the same physical base. For that reason this informs the earnings-quality verdict but never caps it.
Reported free cash flow is $495M; after share-based compensation it is $413M. The difference is a real cost that the cash flow statement adds back.
Covers interest 28157.6x even after a 30% EBITDA decline.
| EBITDA decline | Interest coverage |
|---|---|
| 0% | 40225.17x |
| 5% | 38213.91x |
| 10% | 36202.65x |
| 15% | 34191.39x |
| 20% | 32180.13x |
| 25% | 30168.88x |
| 30% | 28157.62x |
| 35% | 26146.36x |
| 40% | 24135.10x |
| 45% | 22123.84x |
| 50% | 20112.58x |
| 55% | 18101.32x |
| 60% | 16090.07x |
This schedule comes from a filing dated 2024-12-31, 668 days old. Maturities are shown relative to that date, not to today.
Ladder as of 2024-12-31 (20-F); cash from the 2024-12-31 balance sheet; FCF from FY2024.
Balance sheet at 2024-12-31. Undrawn revolving credit is not shown: the tag is collected but not yet mapped through to the API.
Operating leases are $1,036,805,000 of the $1,036,805,000 total — a fixed obligation that does not appear in a headline debt figure.
At $31.51, free cash flow must compound 9.89%/yr for 10 years. It has no positive compounding record to compare against.
| Fiscal year | FCF growth | Price requires |
|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 1148.4% | 9.9% |
| FY2025 | 87.4% | 9.9% |
The percentile ranks the FISCAL-YEAR point, because the distribution behind each strip is built from fiscal-year closes — ranking a TTM figure inside it would compare two different bases. No TTM point: the four most recent quarters do not form a usable window.
The implied rate has been matched or beaten in 2 of the last 2 years.
SBC is added back inside operating cash flow, so reported free cash flow treats shares issued to employees as free. Percent of revenue says how expensive the payroll is; percent of operating cash flow says how much of the cash exists only because the charge was added back. The buyback offset is buybacks over SBC — below 1.0 the repurchase does not cover the shares issued.
Figures are the latest fiscal year (FY2025) from the company's own filings, not a trailing-twelve-month window — Q2 reads fiscal years throughout so the cash-conversion ratios and these share one basis. A blank is a line the filer did not report; it is never read as zero.