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Held by 912 of 2,417 reporting institutions (99th percentile) — extremely crowded.
Data as of Q3 2026
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Solve the discounted cash flow backwards, then stress-test the assumptions.
Average free cash flow across the last 3 positive fiscal years (FY2023, FY2024, FY2025). Smooths the cycle. Stock compensation is NOT charged — it is added back inside operating cash flow.
To be worth $78.03 today, the market must believe free cash flow compounds -1.1%/yr for a decade (off $8.93B on the 3-yr avg basis).
The market's -1.1% is more conservative than its 9-yr track record.
Default is 7.0% — this company's computed cost of capital (computed WACC), the same rate the Analysis tab discounts at.
2-stage DCF · 1.66B shares (market data) · net debt $21.23B
mean 12.8% · volatility σ 25% · implied rate exceeded in 6/9 yrs
Central path = implied -1.1%/yr growth; shaded band = ±1σ (25%) of this company's historical FCF volatility, widening with time. The wider the band, the less certain the growth.
Reverse DCF: rather than guessing a fair value, we solve for the growth the current price implies, then you stress-test the assumptions. Enterprise value of the FCF stream, less net debt, ÷ shares. Educational — not a recommendation.
Total shares institutions bought (green) vs sold (red) each quarter across all holders.
Inferred from quarter-over-quarter change in each fund's 13F position (new stakes count as buys, exits as sells). Not tick-level trades.
Ranked against 3 sector peers with collected financials. Valuation from latest close × latest fiscal-year fundamentals; 13F conviction as of 2026-09-30.
Percentile is “goodness” within the peer set (100 = best). For valuation and leverage that means cheaper / less-levered ranks higher.
| Company | Mkt cap ▼ | P/E | EV/EBITDA | P/S | Rev gr | Gross | Net | ROE | ROIC | Net D/EBITDA | 13F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PM | $325.4B | 28.8× | 21.7× | 8.0× | 7.3% | 67.1% | 27.9% | -114% | 32.1% | 2.4× | 1,086 |
| MO | $129.8B | 18.9× | 14.9× | 5.6× | -3.1% | 62.5% | 29.8% | -198% | 31.3% | 2.1× | 912 |
| RLX | $2.0B | 16.1× | 23.6× | 3.5× | 50.3% | 29.9% | 23.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | -14.7× | 12 |
| TPB | $1.3B | 21.6× | — | 2.9× | 28.4% | 57.1% | 12.6% | 15.6% | 8.7% | — | 32 |
Peers = companies sharing MO's sector (Cigarettes) with collected SEC financials. Multiples use the most recent end-of-day close and latest fiscal-year fundamentals (trailing, not forward). Missing cells mean the peer never reported that line item, has no collected price, or has a non-positive denominator. Not investment advice.
Total return (dividends reinvested) vs the market, from quarter-end prices.
Above 0 = ahead of the S&P 500 since the window start; below 0 = behind. Rising means it's pulling ahead.
How far the stock fell below its prior peak. Deeper, longer drawdowns = a rougher ride to the same return.
Quarter-end, dividend-adjusted (total return). Beta & volatility from quarterly returns (annualized). Benchmark is the S&P 500 (SPY total return). Annual returns compound the quarters ending in each calendar year; the first and last years in a window may be partial. Past performance doesn't predict future results.
Last reported position per insider, carried forward. Steps can be a holding disclosed for the first time rather than a trade.
| Date | Insider | What it was | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Patterson Katie F Vice President and Controller | Tax withholding | 1,268 | $71.56 | $91k |
| 2026-09-09 | Mcquade Kathryn B. Director | Plan purchase | 1,500 | $67.62 | $101k |
| 2026-05-26 | Kelly Ennis Debra J Director | Open-market sale | 5,790 | $72.25 | $418k |
| 2026-05-26 | Strahlman Ellen R Director | Open-market sale | 2,000 | $72.56 | $145k |
| 2026-05-14 |
Every row is classified by what it MEANT, not by its SEC code. A code is not a meaning: code P (“purchase”) also covers dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plans, and code S (“sale”) also covers 10b5-1 plan sales scheduled months earlier and option exercises sold the same day.
Across 30 days of all filings, $5.08bn of insider selling contained $3.50bn of plan sales and $0.46bn of exercise-and-sell. Only 29% was discretionary. Reading an unclassified feed badly overstates how much insiders decided.
Buys and sales are counted separately and never netted. They are different decisions by different people; a company where one officer bought while another sold is not “neutral”.
The holding line carries each insider's last reported position forward, so it shows the total held rather than a sawtooth of whoever traded that day. It covers only insiders who filed in the window.
“Filed late” counts calendar days past the two-business-day deadline with five days' grace, so a Thursday or Friday trade crossing a weekend is never flagged. It describes the company's filing discipline, not the trade.
Insider activity is descriptive. Nothing here is investment advice.
Kelly Ennis Debra J Director |
| Grant |
| 2,571 |
| $0.00 |
| $0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Davis Robert Matthews Director | Grant | 2,571 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Shanks Virginia E Director | Grant | 2,571 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Yzaguirre Mario Max Director | Grant | 2,571 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Mcquade Kathryn B. Director | Grant | 4,656 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Connelly Marjorie Mary Director | Grant | 2,571 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Strahlman Ellen R Director | Grant | 2,571 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Stoddart Richard S Director | Grant | 2,571 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Clarke Ian L.T. Director | Grant | 2,571 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Mancuso Salvatore Chief Executive Officer | Grant | 40,634 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-03-05 | Whitaker Charles N. SVP, Chief HR Off. & CCO | Open-market sale | 27,908 | $67.57 | $1.9m |
| 2026-02-26 | 2 co-filers EVP & CFO | Grant | 17,166 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2 co-filers EVP & General Counsel | Grant | 5,767 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2 co-filers Chief Executive Officer | Grant | 70,364 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Patterson Katie F Vice President and Controller | Tax withholding | 844 | $69.70 | $59k |
| 2026-02-26 | 2 co-filers SVP, Ch.Strategy & Growth Off | Grant | 11,822 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2 co-filers SVP, Chief HR Off. & CCO | Grant | 9,711 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2 co-filers EVP and COO | Grant | 17,166 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2 co-filers Chief Executive Officer | Tax withholding | 61,849 | $69.70 | $4.3m |
| 2026-02-26 | 2 co-filers SVP, Ch.Strategy & Growth Off | Tax withholding | 11,343 | $69.70 | $791k |
| 2026-02-26 | 2 co-filers EVP & CFO | Tax withholding | 17,385 | $69.70 | $1.2m |
| 2026-02-26 | 2 co-filers SVP, Chief HR Off. & CCO | Tax withholding | 8,932 | $69.70 | $623k |
| 2026-02-26 | 2 co-filers EVP & General Counsel | Tax withholding | 4,517 | $69.70 | $315k |
| 2026-02-26 | 2 co-filers EVP and COO | Tax withholding | 17,439 | $69.70 | $1.2m |
| 2026-02-25 | Patterson Katie F Vice President and Controller | Grant | 1,432 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Mccarter Robert A. Iii EVP & General Counsel | Grant | 22,448 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Begley Jody L EVP and COO | Grant | 22,448 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Whitaker Charles N. SVP, Chief HR Off. & CCO | Grant | 13,534 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Newman Heather A. SVP, Ch.Strategy & Growth Off | Grant | 11,973 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Mancuso Salvatore EVP & CFO | Grant | 25,376 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Munoz George Director | Option exercise | 2,078 | $67.09 | — |
| 2026-02-04 | Gifford William F. Jr. Chief Executive Officer | Gift | 15,700 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Munoz George Director | Option exercise | 9,750 | $61.39 | — |
| 2025-12-09 | Newman Heather A. SVP, Ch.Strategy & Growth Off | Grant | 25,751 | $0.00 | $0 |
| 2025-12-09 | Whitaker Charles N. SVP, Chief HR Off. & CCO | Grant | 17,168 | $0.00 | $0 |
What the company returns to shareholders — and whether it's covered by cash.
The dividend takes 77% of free cash flow — sustainable but with limited headroom. Last year: $6.96B dividends + $1.00B buybacks = $7.96B returned on $9.07B FCF.
9 consecutive years of dividend increases · 7%/yr.
Yields use the latest fiscal-year dividends/buybacks over current market cap. Dividends and buybacks from the SEC cash-flow statement; payout coverage vs net income and free cash flow. Educational — not a recommendation.
How management deployed cash over 10 years — and what it earned on reinvestment.
A cash-return story — far more went to shareholders than back into the business (mature, low-reinvestment).
Reinvestment has been productive — operating income grew well per dollar put in. Current ROIC on all capital: 31%. Rough measure (includes maintenance capex).
Cash uses aggregated from the SEC cash-flow statement over 10 fiscal years. "Return on reinvestment" is a rough proxy — operating-income change ÷ cumulative CapEx + M&A — and includes maintenance capex. Educational — not a recommendation.
EOD close · as of 2026-10-30
How a revenue dollar becomes profit — FY2025
Dividends and buybacks are cash paid out, shown here against the same year's profit for scale — not funded from it. This year they exceeded net income, so the ribbons are capped at earnings and understate what was actually returned.
Each value shows its share of revenue below it (common-size).
| Line Item | FY2025 | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | FY2021 | FY2020 | FY2019 | FY2018 | FY2017 | FY2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $23.28B 100.0% | $24.02B 100.0% | $24.48B 100.0% | $25.10B 100.0% | $26.01B 100.0% | $26.15B 100.0% | $25.11B 100.0% | $25.36B 100.0% | $25.58B 100.0% | $25.74B 100.0% |
| Cost of Revenue | $5.60B 24.0% | $6.08B 25.3% | $6.22B 25.4% | $6.44B 25.7% | $7.12B 27.4% | $7.82B 29.9% | $7.08B 28.2% | $7.37B 29.1% | $7.53B 29.4% | $7.76B 30.2% |
| Cost of Products | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | $7.54B 29.5% | $7.75B 30.1% |
| Gross Profit | $14.54B 62.5% | $14.37B 59.8% | $14.28B 58.3% | $14.25B 56.8% | $13.99B 53.8% | $13.02B 49.8% | $12.71B 50.6% | $12.25B 48.3% | $11.96B 46.8% | $11.57B 45.0% |
| Research & Development | $195.0M 0.8% | $208.0M 0.9% | $220.0M 0.9% | $162.0M 0.6% | $145.0M 0.6% | $131.0M 0.5% | $168.0M 0.7% | $252.0M 1.0% | $241.0M 0.9% | $203.0M 0.8% |
| Operating Income | $9.90B 42.5% | $11.24B 46.8% | $11.55B 47.2% | $11.92B 47.5% | $11.56B 44.4% | $10.87B 41.6% | $10.33B 41.1% | $9.12B 35.9% | $9.59B 37.5% | $8.76B 34.0% |
| Interest Expense | $1.18B 5.1% | $1.12B 4.7% | $1.15B 4.7% | $1.13B 4.5% | $1.19B 4.6% | $1.22B 4.7% | $1.32B 5.3% | $697.0M 2.7% | $736.0M 2.9% | $754.0M 2.9% |
| Interest & Investment Income | $98.0M 0.4% | $87.0M 0.4% | $160.0M 0.7% | $70.0M 0.3% | $26.0M 0.1% | $14.0M 0.1% | $42.0M 0.2% | $32.0M 0.1% | $31.0M 0.1% | $13.0M 0.1% |
| Pretax Income | $9.39B 40.3% | $13.66B 56.9% | $10.93B 44.6% | $7.39B 29.4% | $3.82B 14.7% | $6.89B 26.3% | $766.0M 3.1% | $9.34B 36.8% | $9.83B 38.4% | $21.85B 84.9% |
| Income Tax Expense | $2.44B 10.5% | $2.39B 10.0% | $2.80B 11.4% | $1.63B 6.5% | $1.35B 5.2% | $2.44B 9.3% | $2.06B 8.2% | $2.37B 9.4% | -$399.0M -1.6% | $7.61B 29.6% |
| Net Income | $6.95B 29.8% | $11.26B 46.9% | $8.13B 33.2% | $5.76B 23.0% | $2.48B 9.5% | $4.47B 17.1% | -$1.29B -5.1% | $6.96B 27.5% | $10.22B 40.0% | $14.24B 55.3% |
| Per Share | ||||||||||
| EPS (Basic) | $4.12 | $6.54 | $4.57 | $3.19 | $1.34 | $2.40 | -$0.70 | $3.69 | $5.31 | $7.28 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.12 | $6.54 | $4.57 | $3.19 | $1.34 | $2.40 | -$0.70 | $3.68 | $5.31 | $7.28 |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Basic) | 1.68B | 1.72B | 1.78B | 1.80B | 1.84B | 1.86B | 1.87B | 1.89B | 1.92B | 1.95B |
| Weighted Avg Shares (Diluted) | 1.68B | 1.72B | 1.78B | 1.80B | 1.84B | 1.86B | 1.87B | 1.89B | 1.92B | 1.95B |
Source: SEC EDGAR XBRL filings (annual, fiscal year). Quarterly flow items are derived from cumulative filings; balance-sheet figures are as-of each period end. Ratios and margins are computed, not reported.
EOD close · as of 2026-10-30
Where each multiple sits in its own 14-yr range · 97th pct blended
Dot = today · shaded = middle 50% · line = median. Lower percentile = cheaper vs its own 14-yr history.
Is the profit real, and how strong is the balance sheet?
FY2025 · every deduction from revenue to net income
DuPont — the three levers
ROE -198% against ROIC 31% — -230% of the return on equity comes from leverage and buybacks rather than from the operating business.
What the company owes vs. what it holds
This shows debt/cash structure and net leverage. The year-by-year maturity schedule is on the Debt & Leverage tab.
Latest year: profit growth vs revenue growth
High operating leverage: profit moved 3.9× as fast as sales — great in an upturn, painful in a downturn.
Each line as % of revenue — the trend in color
| % of revenue | FY2018 | FY2019 | FY2020 | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost of Revenue | 29.1 | 28.2 | 29.9 | 27.4 | 25.7 | 25.4 | 25.3 | 24.0 |
| Gross Profit | 48.3 | 50.6 | 49.8 | 53.8 | 56.8 | 58.3 | 59.8 | 62.5 |
| R&D | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Operating Income | 35.9 | 41.1 | 41.6 | 44.4 | 47.5 | 47.2 | 46.8 | 42.5 |
| Income Tax | 9.4 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 11.4 | 10.0 | 10.5 |
| Net Income | 27.5 | -5.1 | 17.1 | 9.5 | 23.0 | 33.2 | 46.9 | 29.8 |
Green = margin-favorable vs the row's own range · red = unfavorable.
The metrics that matter, over time
A 30-second read on MO: price, valuation and headline fundamentals from SEC filings. The four questions at the top of the page are where the judgements live.
How much the company owes, how it's trended, and how comfortably it's serviced.
Cash of $4.47B covers the $1.57B due within a year 2.9× over. Scheduled principal only (excludes interest & revolver draws). As of 2025-12-31 (10-K).
Green ≤ 1.5× · amber ≤ 3× · red > 3× (leverage relative to cash earnings).
Interest is easily covered by operating profit. Effective rate ~4.6% on $25.71B of debt.
Cash of $4.47B fully covers short-term debt of $0.
Mostly long-term debt (balance-sheet current vs non-current split). See the maturity ladder above for the year-by-year repayment schedule.
Debt, cash, interest and equity from the SEC balance sheet & income statement. Effective rate = interest ÷ average debt. Maturity ladder from the SEC long-term-debt repayment schedule. Educational — not a recommendation.
The spread has compressed 3 years running.
| Period | ROIC | Cost of capital | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | 24.3% | 7.0% (today's — no rate published for this year) | 17.3pts |
| FY2020 | 30.0% | 7.0% (today's — no rate published for this year) | 23.0pts |
| FY2021 | 39.7% | 5.5% | 34.2pts |
| FY2022 | 47.8% | 6.5% | 41.3pts |
| FY2023 | 45.6% | 6.5% | 39.1pts |
| FY2024 | 43.2% | 6.6% | 36.5pts |
| FY2025 | 41.9% | 6.3% | 35.6pts |
| Now | 31.3% | 7.0% | 24.2pts |
| Fiscal year | Gross margin | Operating margin | Net margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2016 | 45.0% | 34.0% | 55.3% |
| FY2017 | 46.8% | 37.5% | 40.0% |
| FY2018 | 48.3% | 35.9% | 27.5% |
| FY2019 | 50.6% | 41.1% | -5.1% |
| FY2020 | 49.8% | 41.6% | 17.1% |
| FY2021 | 53.8% | 44.4% | 9.5% |
| FY2022 | 56.8% | 47.5% | 23.0% |
| FY2023 | 58.3% | 47.2% | 33.2% |
| FY2024 | 59.8% | 46.8% | 46.9% |
| FY2025 | 62.5% | 42.5% | 29.8% |
$5.8B of goodwill — 30% of invested capital. The gap is what was paid above the fair value of what was bought; it is real capital shareholders provided, so neither bar is the whole answer.
ROIC ex-goodwill is 55.78% against 39.18% reported — the return is earned on a capital base inflated by what was paid for acquisitions, not by the operating business alone.
Converts 1.58x of reported profit into free cash flow over 5 years, with accruals negative.
Capex has been below depreciation for 6 consecutive years (0.73x on average over the last 5). Spending less than the asset base is consuming flatters free cash flow now and defers the cost — though depreciation also covers amortisation of acquired intangibles, which capex is not meant to replace.
Missing from our data, so excluded from this answer: share_based_compensation.
Covers interest 5.9x even after a 30% EBITDA decline.
| EBITDA decline | Interest coverage |
|---|---|
| 0% | 8.41x |
| 5% | 7.99x |
| 10% | 7.57x |
| 15% | 7.15x |
| 20% | 6.73x |
| 25% | 6.31x |
| 30% | 5.89x |
| 35% | 5.47x |
| 40% | 5.05x |
| 45% | 4.63x |
| 50% | 4.21x |
| 55% | 3.78x |
| 60% | 3.36x |
Ladder as of 2025-12-31 (10-K); cash from the 2025-12-31 balance sheet; FCF from FY2025.
Balance sheet at 2025-12-31. Undrawn revolving credit is not shown: the tag is collected but not yet mapped through to the API.
The maturity schedule is not part of this verdict — its filing anchor is often older than the balance sheet it sits beside, so a wall inside 24 months may not be visible here.
At $78.03, free cash flow must compound -1.07%/yr for 10 years. It has done 3.02%/yr over 6 years.
| Fiscal year | FCF growth | Price requires |
|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | 7.4% | −1.1% |
| FY2021 | 1.0% | −1.1% |
| FY2022 | −2.2% | −1.1% |
| FY2023 | 12.9% | −1.1% |
| FY2024 | −5.3% | −1.1% |
| FY2025 | 5.4% | −1.1% |
The percentile ranks the FISCAL-YEAR point, because the distribution behind each strip is built from fiscal-year closes — ranking a TTM figure inside it would compare two different bases. TTM basis: TTM (share count from the last fiscal year — the TTM window reports none).
The implied rate has been matched or beaten in 4 of the last 6 years.
| Step | Amount | Running total |
|---|---|---|
| Net income | $6.95B | $6.95B |
| Share-based comp | not reported | not reported |
| Other non-cash & working capital | $2.34B | $9.29B |
| Operating cash flow | $9.29B | $9.29B |
| Capex | −$216M | $9.07B |
| Free cash flow | $9.07B | $9.07B |
| Fiscal year | Revenue growth | Receivables growth | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | 4.2% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2021 | -0.5% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2022 | -3.5% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2023 | -2.4% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2024 | -1.9% | not reported | not reported |
| FY2025 | -3.1% | not reported | not reported |
| Fiscal year | Accruals / assets |
|---|---|
| FY2019 | -18.5 percent |
| FY2020 | -8.3 percent |
| FY2021 | -15.0 percent |
| FY2022 | -6.7 percent |
| FY2023 | -3.0 percent |
| FY2024 | 7.1 percent |
| FY2025 | -6.7 percent |
Below the line, the asset base is being consumed faster than it is replaced.
Below the line for 6 consecutive years to the latest.
Depreciation here includes amortisation of acquired intangibles — goodwill written down over time, customer lists, acquired technology. Capex does not replace those and is not meant to, so an acquisitive or asset-light company sits below 1.0 permanently and correctly. The signal is cleanest for capital-intensive businesses, where the two measure the same physical base. For that reason this informs the earnings-quality verdict but never caps it.
Top 40 institutional holders — bubble size is position value, color is the move since last quarter. Hover any holder for detail.
Drag any bubble to rearrange · size = dollar value of the position